It's prediction time! Every season, this column tries to guess what will happen in the coming months, focusing on all the riders in the category. Then, at the end of each article, the author will make a prediction, but will also welcome yours in the comments! Today, it's time to talk about Joan Mir.
Yesterday, we revisited the case of Enea Bastianini; click here to find the article in question.
An obvious flaw
After yet another very disappointing season, Joan Mir is returning to Honda for 2026. While the positive momentum is evident within the winged team, the world champion MotoGP 2020 did not necessarily benefit from this wave in 2025Indeed, he did climb onto the third step of the podium twice, but continued to fall. again and again, thus ruining all of his employer's efforts.
Mir looks motivated, and he's got his smile back in 2025, yes, that's for sure. But a smile doesn't win races. Photo: HRC
What he needs to correct is obvious: Joan Mir falls too much, far too muchThis is simply unprecedented since the introduction of MotoGP in 2002. In 2025, on Sundays alone, he had thirteen retirements; it's staggering. Sometimes he was unlucky and got hit, yes, but most of the time, he was solely responsible for his mistakes.
His performance in 2026 will undoubtedly depend largely on this factor. If he continues at this frenetic pace, then it will be a carbon copy of 2025. If he stops, however, he can probably aspire to better positionsSo, it's very difficult for me to predict his final ranking, because I'd be very surprised to see him become a model of consistency, but I haven't forgotten that it was thanks to this strength that he had such a good 2021 season. He's capable of it; will he have the discipline to maintain it?
A limited ceiling
I felt it was important to address a specific point regarding Joan Mir. Because he crashes, many spectators assume he's fast or taking risks. However, in 2025, Luca Marini, his teammate who started from much further back, demonstrated that consistency and speed could be combined. In the second half of the season, Marini became a regular contender for the top five, while Mir was still struggling, even in terms of pace. Admittedly, Mir achieved two podium finishes, but if we consider the season as a whole, Marini scored more points, more points per race, and was on par with him in qualifying. The excuse of speed can no longer save Mir in 2026, because he has de facto become slower than Marini. For more information on this parameter, I invite you to read this article in which I elaborate further on the subject.
All this to say that, even if he stops crashing, I'm not expecting miracles. I do think Joan Mir's potential is quite limited, and extremely limited for a MotoGP world champion. Let's say he doesn't have any retirements this season. What can we expect from him? Can he become a regular contender for victory, something he couldn't even do when he was fighting for the best overall positions with Suzuki? Is it possible for him to become a monster in qualifying, given that he is the only champion in the history of the premier category without any pole positions?
I can't name a single area where this driver is significantly better than another mid-table driver. Therefore, it's difficult for me to imagine him having a very good season… unless his machine is high-performing.
Honda, the major question mark
I must admit that I find people very lenient with Mir compared to Luca Marini. Photo: HRC
In the article about Alex Rins, I said that the form of the Japanese manufacturers would be the biggest question mark of the year. Honda, like Yamaha, benefited from very generous regulatory support in 2025 and was able to significantly improve its package. Towards the end of the season, the factory Honda became a very good machine, capable of competing with the KTM, at the very least. Honda's teams are very optimistic about 2026.Alberto Puig says he's aiming for victories, Aleix Espargaro affirms that the RC213V spec 26 is the best MotoGP bike he has ridden, and Marini and Mir believe they can reach the top positions.
These are just words, but I believe them. The resources deployed since the beginning of 2024 are quite substantial, and given this facilitated development, It would almost be normal for Honda to be involved in 2026.That's why I think this motorcycle can really stand out for at least a few races, and, why not, lead Joan Mir to success.
Time for the prediction!
When I combine all these elements, it's very difficult for me to make a prediction. Mir was 15th last year, but I see him doing better, with more points. Why not a circumstantial victory, too? But we mustn't forget the Jorge Martin bias, completely absent in 2025, just like the second Honda LCR handlebar which could, this time, pose problems for Diogo Moreira. So, I see Mir finishing between the 13e et 15e Overall standings; a better result, but nothing to write home about. He could even be in the top 10 of the championship if the Honda proved truly competitive, a possibility I'm not ruling out. but it is impossible for me to take a firm position on this at the moment.
However, I highly doubt he will stop falling so often overnight, even though I wish him well. because the fact that he hasn't been seriously injured so far is nothing short of a miracleIt is this major consideration that leads me to such a conclusion, but I would be very curious to know your opinion on the Spanish.
Can Mir still surprise us in 2026? Tell me in the comments!
As a reminder, this article only reflects the thoughts of its author, and not of the entire editorial team.
I see Joan Mir finishing as the third best Honda rider out of four. Photo: HRC
Cover photo: HRC
