It's prediction time! Every season, this column tries to guess what will happen in the coming months, focusing on all the riders in the category. Then, at the end of each article, the author will make a prediction, but will also welcome yours in the comments! Today, it's time to talk about Maverick Viñales.
Yesterday, we revisited the case of Joan Mir; click here to find the article in question.
The winning combination?
Maverick Viñales was certainly at the heart of one of the winter's biggest sagas. At the end of 2025, the Spaniard announced a new collaboration with Jorge Lorenzo, who, incidentally, is making his big return to the paddocks. Hired as a mental coach – From what we understand, the five-time world champion also wants to physically prepare "Top Gun", notably through his new performance academy, and through his father Chicho.
Are you interested in this Viñales/Lorenzo partnership? Photo: Tech3
They communicated a lot about it. A lot, really. In fact, not a week goes by without news from the duo. In interviews, everything is very " Lorenzo-esque "And I'm not complaining. They even compared themselves to the duo." Rocky Balboa/Apollo CreedAnd Vinales, with each media appearance, speaks to us of a new state of mind.
It's as if, at the dawn of the 2026 season, Viñales' 12th in the premier class, we were faced with a refreshed rider, his ambition rekindled. According to him, he was galvanized during winter testing. ready to get back on track the very next day for a Grand Prix! Impressive. But then, isn't he going to play in the World Championship?
Reality is not a movie
Sorry to all Maverick Vinales fans, But I don't believe it for a second.Not for a moment. You know, I was a fan of Jorge Lorenzo when he was racing, but sometimes, in his communication with Vinales, his behavior is almost parodic.
Do you believe that at 31, after so many years in MotoGPCould Maverick Viñales emerge in a new light? Mind you, I'm not saying he'll be bad or that he was a bad rider in the past. For me, "Top Gun" is a kind of wasted talent, or rather, a talent whose full potential we've never seen. He proved it in 2025 with his absolutely stunning start to the season, where he was the best KTM rider. Yes, Maverick can surprise for a race or two, and he can even win! After all, that's what he's accustomed us to.
But it's precisely on this point that I don't believe in this new narrative arc. Maverick Viñales has been doing the same thing in MotoGP since 2016. He has the same strengths and the same weaknesses. He's always excellent during winter testing and disappoints again and again, ever since 2016. It's been like this for ten years. And a skillfully executed communication campaign, it must be said, Would you have me believe that making him do eights at 31 years old on a 600cc would change anything? Would this transform him into a consistent driver, strong over one lap, capable of competing for a championship? I'm not buying.
Maverick Vinales needs to be careful
Furthermore, Lorenzo had such a unique style that I doubt he could teach it to Viñales, just like his mentality. Sometimes, the best players don't make the best coaches. Photo: Tech3
I would even say that the upcoming season is likely to be more complicated than they imagine. Firstly, in my opinion, the KTM will sometimes be good, but rather disappointing; This is my conviction, expressed in detail in the article on Brad Binder, which you can find by clicking here. Basically, I imagine it to be at the level of the Honda, and quite significantly below the Ducati and the Aprilia. Pedro Acosta's gloomy impression after winter testing reinforces this idea. Therefore, I don't see Maverick Vinales beating Acosta, on the one hand, and transforming the KTM into a threatening bike in the long term, on the other.
Secondly, we mustn't forget that age is starting to take its toll. Maverick Viñales is no longer a youngster: he's 31, and, as everyone seems to forget, he's coming off a year marred by a major injury, the first of his MotoGP career. Since that infamous German Grand Prix, he's only made four Grand Prix appearances, finishing 13th, 16th, and suffering two retirements. Yes, he claims to be at 100%, but we know that such an injury to such a vital joint can have lifelong consequences. Look at Franco Morbidelli, who was never the same after his cruciate ligament rupture and knee surgery. He too claimed to be back to 100%, but something was missing.The same could be said of Enea Bastianini, in a sense, after this 2023 season completely broke his momentum which was leading him straight towards a world championship title in the coming years – in my opinion.
Time for the prediction!
I'm not saying Viñales will have a bad year. He could achieve some very good results, maybe even a win, which wouldn't really surprise me, because we're used to his talent. On a good day, very few are capable of stopping him. But to go so far as to challenge Acosta in the standings, as Lorenzo suggested, or to be in contention for a serious top-10 finish, I do not believe it. “Top Gun” has had the same flaws for too long for all of this to be erased in one winter, and we must not forget that it will not benefit from the best equipment on the grid.
In fact, I see him finishing this season in 15e place, or, let's say, between the 14e et 16e, therefore, in the same waters as Joan Mir, but behind Brad Binder.
Where do you place Maverick Vinales in your hierarchy? Tell me in the comments!
As a reminder, this article only reflects the thoughts of its author, and not of the entire editorial team.
Injuries can also be mental. Photo: Tech3
Cover photo: Michelin Motorsport
