Let's Talk MotoGP: Here's What Not to Miss at Mugello

The Italian Grand Prix is ​​finally approaching! Mugello is undoubtedly one of the most beautiful circuits visited by the caravan of the MotoGPFor several years, Pecco Bagnaia has largely dominated the debates on the Tuscan track. Where will he stand? Can he finally beat Marc Marquez fairly?

 

Real progress… or not?

 

Let's first focus on Pecco Bagnaia, currently third in the championship. Author of a disappointing start to the season, he never got to know his ride, the Desmosedici GP25. Next to him, in the pit box, Marc Marquez is racking up victories like pearls. This was also the case at Aragon, where Pecco had no say in the matter. However, he thinks he's found something with... new brake discs. I must admit that I find it a little hard to believe.

 

 

Bagnaia isn't one to spread false information, but one of two things is true. First, it's not as if it's miraculous: He finished third in the Grand Prix, but it is almost normal that he aims for this position. Overall, the Aragon Grand Prix was not good for him, with no points scored on Saturday. His feeling may have improved, yes. I find it hard to believe that this simple evolution will change his feeling completely, and that he will therefore start winning too. Secondly, I think he needs to convince himself to regain his confidence. These discs probably do not change the situation, but he would be well advised to try to cling to the slightest avenue of improvement, which is why, I imagine, we have heard so much about it.

Let's assume this record story is true. Unfortunately, it will take him a few more races to get back to his 2024 level. Is Bagnaia the favorite at Mugello? Not in my opinion, because the gap between him and the two Marquez brothers is still too big. I would say that this is the track where he has the best chance of winning this season, yes, but Marc Marquez remains the main contender for victory. Besides, let's talk about the eight-time world champion.

 

Marc Marquez back on top

 

Obviously, our eyes will be on Marquez this weekend, because it is undoubtedly the best driver in the world todayHe's a cut above the rest. When nothing goes his way, he has that bit of luck, that characteristic success that never lets the greatest champions down, like at Silverstone. And when he has the opportunity, he dominates outrageously, like at Aragon. Moreover, during the last GP, he finished first in every session. He's the first to do it since... himself, ten years ago..

The thing is, Mugello is one of the three best tracks at Bagnaia, along with Assen and the Red Bull Ring. On the last two circuits mentioned, Marc Marquez has already proven himself very good, even though he has never won in Austria. But in the case of Italy, he has often disappointed. I personally think that this is the round where he is the weakest. Yes, he won there once, in 2014, but it was a very close race against Jorge Lorenzo; a rider to whom he lost in style in 2016. He crashed there in 2013but also 2015, 2018, 2021 et 2023.

 

 

On the other hand, he has never shown up with such a high-performance bike, which is no small feat. It will be very interesting to see how the Spaniard handles the situation if, from Saturday onwards, we sense that things are not going as planned. I found it quite messy, quite rushed at Silverstone in these conditions., and I wouldn't be surprised to see him give up some ground given the lead he now has in the championship. Bagnaia must use this race to give his all, and perhaps revive a positive dynamic that could continue at Assen just a week later.

 

Any surprises in store?

 

Honestly, it's pretty hard to predict a breakthrough from the outsiders, as they're so inconsistent. I'd encourage you to put a little coin on fabio quartararo, of course, but without being as certain as before Jerez. Mugello is a circuit which, like Silverstone, is historically favorable to the YZR-M1 and "El Diablo" is hungry for revenge after a failed Aragon weekend. Also watch out for Fabio Di Giannantonio, which continues on its merry way without making any noise. It was here that he took his first pole position in 2022 and we know how much this circuit means to the Italians, especially when they gravitate around the VR46 galaxy. I won't even talk about Alex Marquez as he is no longer surprising: The Gresini driver will be there, I can say this with confidence given his magnificent start to the season.

Who would you bet on for the Italian GP? Tell me in the comments!

As a reminder, this article only reflects the thoughts of its author, and not of the entire editorial team.

 

 

Cover photo: Michelin Motorsport