Let's talk MotoGP: Manuel Gonzalez shouldn't sleep soundly

After focusing yesterday on the Moto3 categoryLet's continue our predictions for the 2026 season with Moto2. It was, by far, the most interesting class in 2025, which is why we shouldn't miss anything in this new season, which is quite difficult to predict. In any case, Manuel Gonzalez, who is the logical favorite, won't have an easy task.

Danger comes from everywhere… but not all year round

Unlike Moto3, which favors riders from only a few teams, the competition is much more open in Moto2. Last year, eleven different riders won at least once! Therefore, I'm finding it very difficult to anticipate what might happen in the coming months.

Gonzalez was bitter about not getting a MotoGP ride; he'll be out for revenge. Photo: Intact GP

Okay, to do that, let's focus on the favoritesNaturally, Manuel Gonzalez carries this status, as he was in contention for the title until the very last race in 2025. Even though he lost to Diogo Moreira, I would say he was at least as good as the Brazilian, and losing the title doesn't completely change my assessment of his season. The crown could have gone to either of them without it creating any injustice. So, naturally, someone who loses by a hair's breadth is automatically the favorite for the following year when their rival is no longer there… but still, I don't see Gonzalez winning..

First, let's address the elephant in the room, namely, the two former rookies Aspar David Alonso and Daniel HolgadoThe latter, to my great surprise, burst onto the scene in 2025, even though I perhaps expected more from the Colombian talent. That said, I think that with a year under their belts, both will be very dangerous, at least equally so, and I would give the edge to Alonso if I had to choose just one. In fact, I'd have trouble explaining it, but Alonso has a genius that the others don't. He's a standout, a brilliant figure who can explode onto the scene at any moment.

In a race, yes, danger can come from anywhere. But in a championship, honestly, I find it hard to imagine other drivers doing better than the Alonso/Gonzalez/Holgado trio.

Why I don't believe in outsider "bosses"

In Moto2, there are many outsiders who can shine from time to time. For example, Izan Guevara, Colin Veijer, or Senna AgiusBut the slightly more experienced leaders, who undoubtedly have the ambition to challenge the aforementioned trio, seem to me a notch below.

Let's start with Barry Baltus, the darling of our Belgian friends.He's a very good rider, of course, capable of maintaining impressive consistency over 22 Grands Prix. But, without ever having won, does he really have the profile of a title contender? I don't think so. First, he only had one truly convincing season in Moto2, and then, he considerably lacked speed in 2025. Only two riders in the top 10 didn't have a single victory (him and Arenas), with only one pole position for the Belgian. Make no mistake: he's a very good rider, excellent even, but I imagine David Alonso and Daniel Holgado have a much higher ceiling. Moreover, he rides for Fantic Racing, which, admittedly, is a good team on Kalex, but isn't at the level of the " winning machines Aspar and Ajo.

The situation is somewhat similar for his teammate Tony Arbolinowho, I believe, has already missed his chance. Seeing him distinguish himself in the general classification would surprise me greatly, just as Celestine ViettiIt hurts me because I placed a lot of hope in these two things.

Those who follow this column know that I really like Aron Canet, but I'll talk about his profile again in a moment.

Big questions

Can Barry Baltus do it?

Questions remain. The most interesting, probably, concerns Deniz Öncü, who had a phenomenal start to the 2025 season but was injured in training mid-year. This caused him to miss ten Grands Prix, meaning he's no longer really in form to directly challenge for the title. Let's say it's unlikely, but not impossible. Öncü, now with MarcVDS, brings with him another question mark: that of the Boscoscuro chassis. It is the unknown factor that prevents me from placing Aron Canet, his new teammate, in the title race.

In 2024, Boscoscuro achieved the impossible: competing with Kalex in Moto2, a category that had been the German firm's stronghold since 2013. But in 2025, Kalex regained the advantage, placing eight models in the top 10. From then on, it's difficult to know who has the upper hand, but my instinct tells me that the Germans will dominate again, and therefore, teams like Woman , Asparagus, IntactGP et Italtrans, which embodies our third and final question.

Looking at the history of Moto2, one notices that the same teams have consistently dominated since Kalex's complete takeover around 2013-2014. In recent years, Ajo, for example, won three consecutive titles (2021, 2022, and 2023) before the rise of teams like Boscoscuro and MT Helmets MSi in 2024. But a somewhat less prominent team often makes headlines: Italtrans, crowned champions in 2020 with Enea Bastianini and in 2025 with Diogo Moreira. This Italian team is, in fact, frequently very well placed. So why not take an interest in its pilots?

On one side, Adrian Huertas, a complete unknown. He dominated the Supersport championship in 2024, but was a major disappointment in 2025 alongside Moreira. On the other, the super sub Daniel Munoz, who surprisingly finished on the podium in Catalonia while replacing Öncü at Ajo. Honestly, you'd need a crystal ball to bet on either of them.

Will Manuel Gonzalez take his revenge?

Okay, the time for predictions has arrived. Feel free to share yours in the comments, by the way. Logic says Gonzalez, but my instinct tells me Alonso or Holgado, and since I have to choose, I'll go with Alonso, for the genius. I can easily imagine Gonzalez as a copy of the story of... Youichi Ui, who missed out on a 125cc title against Roberto Locatelli in 2000, therefore started as the big favorite in 2001, but he ran into a new obstacle that came out of nowhere – Manuel Poggiali – and finished second again. That's the harsh law of Grand Prizes.

What do you think ?

As a reminder, this article only reflects the thoughts of its author, and not of the entire editorial team.