Let's Talk MotoGP: Here's Why Honda Needs to Be Very Careful

The rumors in the paddock are only getting louder; in MotoGP, Honda is currently rebuilding, and that includes recruiting top-tier riders. What options are available, and more importantly, which choices should be avoided? Analysis.

Today, I'm going to review the main drivers affected by the rumor mill and give my opinion on each of them.

The obvious solution… or not?

Let's start with Johann Zarco, the most recent winner.. Recruiting him seems pretty obvious given his recent results. Granted, he's already 34, but that could prove to be an advantage for Honda. I think he'd cost less than the ones I'll mention in a few moments, and the fact that he's currently employed by LCR would facilitate the logistical aspect of this signing.

In any case, I hope they keep Luca Marini, who is the only one to have finished every race so far. Photo: Honda MotoGP

The only problem is that Zarco and his manager have already stated that they feel comfortable at LCR. The understanding with Lucio Cecchinello seems perfect, and suits our national Johann well, who wanted to get away from the pressure for results that was omnipresent at KTM and Ducati Pramac. Actually, I think the satellite team is a better option for him; signing for the factory MotoGP would make sense, but I would completely understand if at this stage of his career he refuses and favors his comfort – which translates into performance.

Also, sad to say, I think Honda needs a superstar, on the level of Quartararo at Yamaha. And Zarco, even though he has great talent, does not represent the future of the championship; who knows, for example, if he will still be part of the paddock in 2027 after the rule change. I think it's important that a rider can make the transition and betting on Zarco now is maybe a bit risky..

Impossible

Now it's time to talk about the Toprak Razgatlioglu track, which comes back to the table every year. As detailed in a previous article, I don't believe it at all., especially because of the lower level of the Superbike championship. Apart from his nationality, I see no advantage in signing Toprak rather than Johann Zarco or the other two thieves I am going to present.

The hottest track

The Martin affair broke out almost a week ago, and we know that Honda plays a major role in this. Massimo Rivola is said to have met with decision-makers from the winged brand at Le Mans, which only fuels the rumor. Martin is said to be leaving Aprilia to join the Honda factory team, and clearly, this transfer would make sense according to the criteria previously detailed (young, impactful force, ready to embody an ambitious, fast-paced project). Except I don't think it's the best option. Here's why.

I'm also thinking of Fabio Di Giannantonio, who would make a good factory driver from what we've seen. In fact, he was once tipped to join at the end of 2023. Photo: Michelin Motorsport

As these lines are written, nothing has been communicated by Martin and Aprilia – which only makes the case more credible. If Martin leaves the Noale firm in this way, after extricating himself from a KTM contract in 2020, then how can we be sure that he won't do the same thing again at Honda? Is he really that reliable? How can we anticipate the reactions of his manager, Albert Valera, given what is currently happening at Aprilia? And above all, a point that has not yet been discussed anywhere, how can we ensure his physical health at the start of 2026 if a contractual imbroglio prevents him from riding until the end of the season? Imagine a total break between the "Martinator" and Aprilia, which would drag on in court. Betting on a Jorge Martin who has been injured quite often in his career following such a period of unavailability would be quite risky. I have more than one example in mind of riders who have never fully returned after six months of absence. Quid of a new fall? Quid of a total lack of competitiveness?

If the "Martin case" is true, then the Spaniard is in pole position to join Honda, as he would never have taken such a risk if he didn't already have a base. But, in my opinion, it's certainly not the best option, as there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding the 2024 world champion. It could pay off, but I wouldn't risk it, especially considering the amount he can ask for based on his track record.

The good business

This is just my opinion, but I don't see how Pedro Acosta wouldn't succeed at Honda.. I think he's the one the winged company should focus its efforts on. Acosta is young, dynamic, very fast, stagnating at KTM – and therefore has every interest in leaving –, is Spanish, dreams of building up a track record, seems ultra-motivated and is not afraid of a challenge. Many in the paddock, urge Acosta not to waste his time with a declining manufacturer, and I think Pedro is aware of KTM's financial situation, not to mention the RC16's performance which has been declining since 2023.

Perhaps it was due to the old Spanish accent of this team, but this transfer seems quite natural to me. This is also explained, no doubt, by the resemblance to Marc Marquez both in career and profile.

What team to build?

Honestly, I don't see many objective arguments that would make me choose Martin over Acosta right now.…apart from his contract. Pedro's runs until the end of 2026, and apparently, he'd like to honor it. But who knows what the future holds after the Martin affair? Could Valera find some obscure new clause in the piece of paper that ties Acosta to KTM? At the time of writing, Acosta isn't the favorite for the job, partly for this reason.

I'll give you two examples of quartets that hold water, imagining the dismissal of Joan Mir rather than that of Luca Marini – which seems logical to me –, but also the extension of Chantra for non-sporting reasons. The best line-up would be, in my opinion, consisting of Luca Marini and Somkiat Chantra at LCR, with Pedro Acosta and Johann Zarco in the official team. It would be a good compromise between experience, passion, continuity and rupture. But we can also imagine the most likely pair Zarco/Chantra at LCR with Marini/Acosta in the factory lineup. I like it a lot. If I had to bet on what will happen, taking into account the latest news that has reached us, I think Honda can line up Mir/Martin on its main motorcycles and Zarco/Chantra under the aegis of Cecchinello.

If you were to lead the HRC, who would you choose? Tell me in the comments!

As a reminder, this article only reflects the thoughts of its author, and not of the entire editorial team.