Let's talk MotoGP: Two races were enough to put Pecco Bagnaia against the wall

Two Grands Prix. That's how long it took Pecco Bagnaia to lose 34 points to Marc Marquez in this 2025 MotoGP campaign. Yes, the season is very long, and many remind us not to draw conclusions before arriving in Europe. However, I legitimately think there's already reason to worry. The Italian has his back to the wall; he must respond in the next race.

 

A question from Marquez… but not only that

 

Since the Thailand Grand Prix, The press can't help but compare Pecco Bagnaia to Marc Marquez, as they were the two main favorites for the title. That's all I'm not going to do in this article, as the drama goes beyond just the clash between the two. Bagnaia can't compete with Marc Marquez, we've all seen it, four timesThe Spaniard is more comfortable with the GP25, with the media, with the pace, the speed in qualifying... in short, everywhere.

 

 

I wanted to draw your attention to another point. To understand it, try removing Marc Marquez from the equation.. If the #93 wasn't on the grid, Bagnaia would still be second, well behind Alex Marquez. He would still have finished behind Franco Morbidelli in Argentina, another satellite driver on GP24. Contrary to what some media would have you believe, there is no rivalry at the moment between Bagnaia and the big brother Marquez; it is for this same reason that I do not believe in a psychological breakdown. The Italian has already shown that he is mentally strong, and on several occasions. I thought we left this discussion in 2021 to be honest.

The fact that he can't do better than Alex Marquez - who, no disrespect intended, did not evolve in the same galaxy as Bagnaia between 2022 and 2024 – shows that Bagnaia's real problem is this GP25, not Marc Marquez. On pace, he's okay, but in terms of pure speed, I don't recognize him anymore. I haven't yet seen that explosiveness that characterizes him, that lightning speed capable of setting a record lap in qualifying. Likewise, he has big problems braking and can no longer make a difference in this crucial phaseWe saw him struggle against Alex Marquez in Thailand and Argentina, only to come out the loser each time.

He hasn't yet fully described what's bothering him with the GP25, but we know that further improvements are expected to arrive at the Jerez tests, and that this isn't the first time he's struggled with a new model – cf 2022.

 

Let's not rewrite history

 

 

This analysis and the opinion of unenlightened people may mislead you, but no, Marc Marquez's domination doesn't make Pecco Bagnaia a discounted double champion. We can't know what would have happened if Marquez had never been injured in 2020, but I can apply this reasoning to many other situations throughout history. After all, the Man is a fan of alternate history, but it makes no sense: Would Marquez have won his first six titles if he hadn't adopted the radical style that cost him his life at Jerez in 2020? Probably not. It's like when Bagnaia falls from the head, it's the other side of the coin.

What's important to understand is that we don't know if Marc Marquez is overperforming or underperforming right now. Only time will tell. On the other hand, I am certain that Bagnaia is underperformingI saw him win, with his back to the wall, at Sepang in 2022. I saw Bagnaia come back from thirteenth to first place at Mandalika in 2023. I saw Bagnaia win eleven Grands Prix in 2024, including the last three, because he had no choice. I saw itIt happened, it's done, history can't take it away. And that's clearly not the pilot we see evolving right now.

 

A worrying accounting delay

 

Let's step away from the previously introduced parallel reality for a moment and focus on the general classification. Unfortunately for him, Marc Marquez exists. Bagnaia, whether he adapts to the GP25 or not, whether he improves or not, is already significantly behind. Marc Marquez is absolutely untouchable on this machine ; he became the first driver to achieve two consecutive hat-tricks (pole, Sprint and Grand Prix victories) since the introduction of the short format in 2023.

 

 

Thirty-four points behind is huge and the near future does not look good. The next two Grand Prix are favorable to Marc Marquez. The Spaniard is the king of Austin, and has already distinguished himself on numerous occasions in Qatar. The problem is that I hear many consultants say that Europe suits Bagnaia better. I don't think that's true. Jerez is more favorable to him, yes, but Le Mans has the advantage over Marquez. Bagnaia has never won there in MotoGP and lost a lot of points from 2022 to 2024. Silverstone is 50/50. Do I even need to talk about Aragon? For Mugello and Assen, okay, even though Marc Marquez hasn't shown up there with such a powerful bike since 2019 – it could really hurt the Netherlands. Here's what the first part of the season looks like. Does it seem to you to be to Bagnaia's advantage overall? I don't think so.

 

Conclusion

 

In my opinion, the situation is more complex than it seemsBagnaia isn't at his best right now, while Marc Marquez is walking on water – there's little chance he'll win every race like this. It's sad, because we don't get the promised showdown, but reality doesn't care about feelings: Marquez crushes his opponent, and that's all history will remember. Bagnaia, with his back to the wall, must bounce back from the United States. After all, Marc Marquez isn't invincible at COTA, and a win on his home turf would completely reverse the dynamic. Pecco should think of the next round as a championship finale, management be damned.

I'm curious to know what you think of this analysis. Do you share my point of view? Tell me in the comments!

 

 

Cover photo: Michelin Motorsport