Let's talk MotoGP: Europe or Japan, who will win?

Each season, European brands appear more and more formidable. Are we seeing a real change in MotoGP? With the 2023 season fast approaching, we present ten topics to watch out for throughout the year. This may concern drivers, teams or other themes, with, each time, a relatively clear-cut opinion: Here we get wet. Of course, you are invited to say what you think in the comments. The day before yesterday, we returned to the case of Álex Rins, an analysis that you can find by clicking on this highlighted sentence.

To fully understand, a little step back is necessary. Since their arrival in the 1960s, Japanese manufacturers have more or less dominated the motorcycle Grands Prix. We owe them the appearance of great new products, and even the daring recruitment of European stars like Giacomo Agostini with Yamaha. Finally, in a few years, Japan established itself as the number 1 country in motorcycle sports, until today. Whether with Honda, Yamaha , Suzuki or, Kawasaki in small categories, they won everywhere they went.

Over time, these teams have become true institutions characterized by innovation, progress and pure performance. Honda, Yamaha and Suzuki disgusted Europeans who no longer competed with these gigantic companies. Repeated successes led to the birth of a real passion for motorcycling on the archipelago at the end of the 1980s. In the mid-1990s, the grids were populated by Japanese, each as strong as the next.

 

Ducati's manufacturers' and drivers' titles in 2007 changed nothing, Honda and Yamaha were still the two strong teams with officials but also satellite riders at the front. But for several years, it's been nothing. All in all, there are two or even three Japanese at the forefront in all categories, and the manufacturers are struggling against the now more numerous Europeans. Will this continue in 2023 and in the coming years? In our opinion, yes.

When was this phenomenon true? It is difficult to date precisely, but we are certain that the 2016 regulations played a large part in it, even if it is not the only factor as we will see in a few moments. DORNA, pained by the domination of the factory teams (in fact Japanese), introduced a unique ECU in order to close the ranks. A decision that we have detailed at length in other articles. Racing in MotoGP was much cheaper and as is always the case in motorsport, the reduction in budgets resulted in a breakthrough for innovative manufacturers. Innovation is generally forced by the severity of the regulation.

But the Japanese did not ride this wave and rested on their laurels, namely their talented pilots. The best example is none other than Marc Márquez with Honda. Hang in there: since 2016, only four drivers have won at least one race with an RC213V: Jack Miller, Cal Crutchlow, Dani Pedrosa and of course, the six-time MotoGP world champion. In 2022, three different riders have won the Desmosedici.

Why didn't the Japanese manufacturers respond at that time? After all, and although Ducati belongs to the group Volkswagen, there is no shortage of resources Honda. Quite simply because the performances of the Japanese in Grands Prix reflect the downgrading of the entire country, a phenomenon that we, Westerners, have difficulty understanding.

You should know that the situation is extremely serious in Japan. In addition to the major problem of low birth rates, the industry, mainly made up of huge conglomerates, is collapsing. The Japanese economy is governed by the famous Keiretsu, these groups of companies present in different fields of activity (Kawasaki, Honda, Mitsubishi…). Once glorious, the latter are in free fall and pose multiple problems. First, they no longer innovate. Firms like Sharp, Sony, Toshiba, Hitachi, Panasonic and others are nowhere in their respective markets. American and South Korean companies have moved ahead.

 

As a Frenchman currently residing in Japan told us, it seems that these dusty companies have remained stuck in the golden age of Japanese industry. They innovated a lot a few decades ago, and do not have this very American reflex to continue in this direction in order to stay at the top of the pyramid.. Secondly, the presence of these behemoths in decline prevents ingenious small manufacturers from getting started.

Back to the motorcycle Grands Prix. Since 2016, it is possible for a " small " team like Aprilia to compete with Honda or Yamaha. The old continent is imbued with this “garage tradition”, which values ​​small-scale innovation. In this context, the latter are winners, and are set to be even more so. This is our bet on the future.

Logically, the sport is expected to change considerably in the coming years. As explained in a previous analysis, DORN can no longer afford to let one brand dominate in an era where the general public gets tired so easily. The Europeans are infinitely more likely to win this future battle.

Another point is particularly striking: lack of ambition. This is undoubtedly a consequence of what we have studied so far. We have the impression that Honda et Yamaha don't want it as much as Ducati ou Aprilia (which provided radical aerodynamic solutions). This is visible when looking at the motorcycles, but not only that. Recruiting and managing sports programs is scary.

 

One of these indicators is the appointment of Joan Mir in Honda Repsol, among others. He's not a bad driver, but alongside Marc Márquez, why not make a daring bet: Ai Ogura ou Raul Fernandez could have done the trick even if it meant riding a difficult machine with a need to renew oneself, to bring freshness. Ditto for Yamaha, which lets slip Valentino Rossi set up your satellite team with Ducati, until we no longer have any in 2023! Not to mention the incessant defeats of Honda against KTM in Moto3, or the request made to Kalex for a chassis…to be continued.

In conclusion, we imagine the Japanese still in decline in 2023, but kept alive by two immense talents, fabio quartararo et Marc Márquez. We will have to keep an eye on this worrying phenomenon, because although no team will be there forever, the loss of Honda and/or Yamaha in addition to that of Suzuki could well undermine the balance of the championship MotoGP.

What do you think of this thorny question? Tell us in the comments!

Cover photo: Michelin Motorsport