Let's Talk MotoGP: But Why Doesn't Anyone Want This World Title? 1/2

When it's not Pecco Bagnaia, it's Jorge Martin. Indeed, it is true that when reading the statistics of this 2024 season, no one seems determined to take an option on the MotoGP world title. But why this impression? Is it true? What if someone else won the bet? Together, let's try to answer this thorny question.

 

How to explain this phenomenon ?

 

I've been thinking about this question for a while now, and I have to admit that it's quite a difficult one. Why? Because it mixes mathematical reality and feeling.. We can perfectly find Bagnaia and Martin dominant, because they win the majority of the events - as we will see tomorrow, but also, that neither is strong enough to impose itself sustainably. Both readings are correct and legitimate.

 

The Bagnaia factor

 

Like you, I notice that the championship seems to constantly elude the two protagonists of this 2024 season, I am not blind. It is true that they have their share of faults, and that their averages are quite low. Jorge Martin, the current world leader, has scored 64% of the available points. But this statistic is not strange. It must be remembered that Martin has only won twice in Grand Prix, and five times in Sprint, out of thirteen rounds.

For me, this considerably truncates our reading of this season, This is the position of Pecco Bagnaia. Because even if Martin has had some "holes", notably the Sprint at Mugello and, even worse, this race at Sachsenring, he is very consistent in his performance. This 15th place at Misano represents the only event that he has not finished in the top 4 of the year, when he was not falling, of course.

 

 

Bagnaia, on the other hand, has only collected 63,4% of the available points, but has already won seven times on Sunday, and three times in Sprint. It's colossal, he should be well ahead. He is also quite consistent on Sundays, but struggles to build momentum on Saturdays, which is the reason for his delay compared to his maximum potential.

Some of his poor performances are circumstantial; that is an objective fact. And there have been many this season. In Portugal, first of all, he and Marc Marquez were eliminated in the Grand Prix. Then, on the short format at Jerez, he was hit by Brad Binder in turn 1. In France as in Aragon, a mechanical problem got the better of his efforts on Saturday. Then, on Sunday at MotorLand, that now famous clash with Alex Marquez cost him third place. I'm not saying he was innocent every time he didn't score points because there's always a way to do better. After his brush with little brother Marquez, I didn't hesitate to mention it. But these adventures are occasional, they arise from a sometimes strangely unfavorable context.

He has also had his faults (in Catalonia and at Silverstone in the Sprint, in particular, as well as over the entire weekend in the USA), but we cannot say that fate has been with him since the beginning of the season. He seems to be fighting ardently against a momentum unfavorable, which he indirectly maintains by making blunders. Whether you condemn these errors or not, you must recognize that the dynamics of its exercise are not conducive to a total crushing. Especially when his style goes against season-long dominance.

 

 

Two brothers in the same boat

 

One day I will write about the similarities between Martin and Bagnaia. I promised myself that, because I feel like people are just putting them in opposition, maybe because one is more vocal than the other. But if you zoom out, they are the same two, or almost. They have the same approach to the sport, the same fair play, the same speed (Martin has a slight advantage, but not that much), the same philosophy when it comes to overtaking. And both are attackers. They never let their guard down, neither one. They just keep going, all the way, and sometimes – often – wrongly. This 2024 season and the existence of this article justify this position, you will agree..

 

 

This rather extreme approach to racing leads to two phenomena. First, they cannot be titled with a high number of points. Bagnaia has always had rather low averages and it is not about to stop. This is why the battles for the crown have been tight since 2022. Secondly, they are very difficult to beat race after race. The fact that they do not calculate anything makes them formidable opponents on the scale of a weekend, undoubtedly among the strongest that we have seen at the highest level.

This leads to a kind of paradox. For example, I think that Marc Marquez can, at the moment, recover a good part of his 53-point deficit on the "Martinator". He will be able to take advantage of the mistakes of one or the other to come back to the top until the end of the season. But if he reaches their level, then it will be extremely difficult for him to widen the gap. Another good example is Bastianini: he is still there, well placed, with already six podiums and a victory under his belt.. But the vast majority of the time, "Bestia" does not play in the same league as Martin and Bagnaia.

The fact that both have the same style explains why one has a hard time overshadowing the other, despite a big difference in the number of victories.

 

 

Conclusion

 

These elements allow us to better understand the dynamics of this rather strange season. To sum up, Bagnaia and Martin merge and embody a sort of unbeatable driver on a weekend scale.. It is possible to take points from them in the medium term because their approach naturally makes them score few points over a season; they win points in the same way that they lose them. If we add to this the unfavourable circumstances that hit Pecco Bagnaia hard, we understand better why this championship seems so undecided, as if no one wanted to take the world title.

A subsidiary question then arises. Are we witnessing a weak championship, or a strong one? The second part of this analysis, which answers this question, is now out! Take a look by clicking here.

As a reminder, this article only reflects the thoughts of its author, and not of the entire editorial team.

Cover photo: Michelin Motorsport