Let's talk MotoGP: Here's why we shouldn't get carried away with the Raul Fernandez case

Is it time to (re)open the Raul Fernandez case? After the Catalan Grand Prix, I saw many fans talking about a “revelation”, that the Spaniard was thus becoming a “driver to watch”. However, I am not of this opinion. So here we go for a new episode of Parlons MotoGP where I will try to convince you.

 

A late explosion

 

First, let's start by understanding Fernandez's results in Montmelo. Starting third on the grid – at the end of a very good session, Raul was quite brilliant during the Sprint, which he led for a while before falling. Then, during the Grand Prix, a more difficult race awaited him, which saw him fall back to sixth place, his second best result in MotoGP. He leaves Barcelona with 10 points, therefore. Is it that impressive? In my opinion, not quite.

 

A new speed?

 

There is something that many seem to forget. Raul Fernandez was the only one with an Aprilia RS-GP23, last year's vintage. In 2023, this model had largely crushed the Catalan round, with a double during Practice, a second, third and fourth place in qualifying, a 1-3 during the Sprint, a best time during the warm-up, and finally, a double during the Grand Prix led by Aleix Espargaro ahead of Maverick Vinales.

 

 

Surprisingly, last season's Aprilia seemed designed for this circuit. Moreover, she never reached this level of performance again afterwards.. This was undoubtedly linked to the lack of grip on the track, which was again a hot topic this year. So, it doesn't seem so shocking to me that with an improved version of the RS-GP23 package (because even if the base remains the same, some parts change), Raul Fernandez has a good qualifying session. Apart from Aleix Espargaro, still very strong on this route and all the more motivated by his retirement announcement, the other two Aprilia riders had a difficult weekend on the RS-GP24s.

Another element: speed over a lap has always been Raul Fernandez's strong point. In 2020, he scored six pole positions during his best season in Moto3, while only finishing “in” fourth place overall. It was more than the first, the second, the third, the fifth... until the eighth… reunited! In Moto2, same price during its only exercise in the intermediate category. When world champion Remy Gardner started from the best position three times, Raul, had done the same seven times.

If we put it all together, on a circuit that he rather likes - it's here that he scored his first point in MotoGP, so that doesn't make the cocktail that amazing, in any case nothing that could allow us to cry genius.

 

 

A rather mixed result

 

Next, let's move on to what he actually did in this round. Once again, nothing transcendent. His Sprint was successful, sure, but he still fell while in the lead, which is never the most glorious accomplishment – ​​although it's better to fall from first place than from 12th, we're All right. This was largely held against Brad Binder and Pecco Bagnaia who did the same, so I don't see why we would treat Raul Fernandez differently.

His Sunday run was rather anecdotal. He lost places, was never able to catch up and finished sixth, beaten by Fabio Di Giannantonio. Be careful, it's a nice result, but once again, nothing exceptional in terms of MotoGP. Since the introduction of the single ECU in 2016, the number of drivers who can, once or twice in the season, play at the forefront (which Raul Fernandez did not do), has exploded. In 2023, 15 different drivers reached the podium of a Grand Prix. We are already at eight for the 2024 financial year, after only six events. Based on this principle, I cannot be shocked when a driver finishes sixth, which has already been done by 13 drivers out of 22 at the start of the season!

 

What does it change ?

 

I would also like to remind you that last year he took fifth place in Valencia, and at that time, again, many thought his MotoGP career was finally launched. But what has he done since? Let's take a moment to look at this new year. Okay, his scoring average has increased (from 2,55 ppc to 4,66 ppc), but as it stands, it's difficult to be convinced of real dazzling progress.

He has already retired twice, has two top 10 finishes, two entries in the points during the Sprints, is 14th in the general classification, one point ahead of a routed Jack Miller. He is still behind his teammate Miguel Oliveira, who, despite perhaps a little better equipment I recognize, achieves, in my opinion, a disappointing start to the season as possible. And no one is talking about Oliveira. Indeed, he has progressed a little but nothing that justifies enormous enthusiasm.

 

 

What to expect?

 

Here is now my little predictions section. Of course, this article, like the others, is completely subjective. As a result, my opinion may turn out to be wrong, but it's also the game and I'll be the first to admit it. Even, I hope I'm wrong, because I don't see Raul Fernandez doing much better than that. He is already in his third season in MotoGP, and has yet to prove anything. This top 6 achieved in special conditions, coupled with this good speed in qualifying will not change my mind. I think that the rest of his season promises to be difficult, and that the promised transition to RS-GP24 will be double-edged. Either he will adapt immediately to his new mount and hope for a new handlebar in 2025, or else, he will have to take time to understand it and will end up at the bottom of the rankings.

Given what he has shown in MotoGP so far, I would lean more towards the second option, unfortunately. We have seen, on numerous occasions, that the motorcycle of a year n is sometimes more difficult to understand at the beginning than a n-1. The case was quite glaring with Ducati at the start of 2023 for example. And when I compare the prowess of the Aprilia riders in Catalonia compared to last year, I think that he did not suffer from such a big difference on this particular track.

What do you think about the question? Tell me in the comments!

As a reminder, this article only reflects the thoughts of its author, and not of the entire editorial team.

 

 

Cover photo: Michelin Motorsport