Let's talk MotoGP: Marc Marquez still has a page of history to write!

At the Indonesian Grand Prix MotoGP, Marc Marquez and Enea Bastianini had to retire. For different reasons, of course, but the result is the same: a zero point that relegates them to 70 points behind the leader Jorge Martin. With five races to go, any hope of the title has vanished, as you will have understood. On the other hand, only three points separate them. Who will finish third in this championship? An analysis is necessary.

 

An important issue

 

We all know the following adage: "the second is only the first of the losers". Although it is completely true and too often forgotten these days, third place in this championship has a particular significance.

On the one hand, if Marquez finishes third, then he will have managed to beat the driver whose place he will inherit next season. When the signing was announced, many seemed to question the legitimacy of the Spaniard, who, perhaps, deserved this handlebar less than Jorge Martin.. But if he does beat the other factory rider, what could we say to him, besides his two victories – at least? That would allow him to start 2025 with even greater confidence.

 

 

On the other hand, Bastianini would take his revenge on Ducati. The firm from Borgo Panigale preferred Marquez to him. For a competitor of his caliber, this should not happen.. Besides beating one of the best drivers of all time, he would prove to his current employer that they may have made a bad choice.

And then, overall, the gap between third and fourth place in a MotoGP season is quite huge. We often remember the third-place finishers because they sometimes come in just behind two monsters who were facing each other: Dani Pedrosa or Marco Bezzecchi are proof of that. So, I'm going to try to determine who will finish third this season using reasoned points. I will list, subjectively and succinctly, the strengths and weaknesses of the two protagonists.. Are you ready? Let's go!

 

The end of the calendar, an important parameter

 

There are five races left to run on five different circuits. Who has the advantage on these tracks? For me, Marc Marquez. It will probably be tight in Malaysia, where "Bestia" won last year. But at Phillip Island, Thailand, Motegi and Valencia, Marc Marquez has already proven that he is comfortable. As a reminder, he finished third in the 2023 Japanese Grand Prix with the Honda RC213V. In addition, if the conditions deteriorate as is sometimes the case, I think Marquez will adapt better.

 

The GP24, a major advantage

 

 

Bastianini may not have the circuits on his side, but the bike does. His Desmosedici GP24 is now far superior to Marc Marquez's GP23. It adapts better, is faster in the corners, and does not suffer from a recurring problem that affects all riders of the old generation: the rear chasing the front. This could perfectly compensate for the appreciation of the circuits mentioned above. Thus, Bastianini has better rhythms, and often, in recent times, Marc Marquez cannot follow him. This was the case at Misano 2 but also at Mandalika, for example. The difference is clear.

 

The genius of a man

 

The least explainable criterion of this selection, certainly. If Enea Bastianini is one of the men of the moment, his genius behind the handlebars is not comparable to that of Marc Marquez, one of the best in history. It is subtle, difficult to describe, But the eight-time world champion is capable of creating moments of glory, sometimes from nothing like during the first Grand Prix at Misano. In two turns, he can change the face of a race and turn it to his advantage. "Bestia", a cold killer who never needs to lead for long, depends more on the choices of his opponents in battle.

 

One plays more than the other

 

Both are riding with great commitment. But Bastianini, who is heading to KTM Tech3 next year, has every interest in proving that he is capable of beating Marc Marquez, who is a kind of benchmark for the best. He knows that the Austrian machine is less good, that he will no longer have as many opportunities to impose himself.. It's rare enough to be noted, but Marquez, himself, doesn't need to force himself like that. He must prepare for 2025 by riding more intelligently as he declared after Mandalika. In terms of risk-taking, Bastianini has less to lose in my opinion.

 

 

One trick pony

 

"Bestia" tends to apply the same plan, in a loop, and this will have its limits. Each time, he starts timidly, then goes back up. But often, it's too late. I think he will have to find something more, because the most advanced expression of his "philosophy" (is it just a choice?) did not work in Mandalika, when he fell while coming back like a bullet on Pedro Acosta. Marquez, to win, has a much more complete arsenal. He is less good in one-on-one than Bastianini, granted, but he can very well start in front, fight, slow down, manage… his experience gives him an extra point.

 

Falls in referee?

 

What if mistakes were the end of their season? I don't really believe it, but it's a plus for Bastianini if ​​that's the case. This season, apart from his fall in Indonesia, he's been very clean, very consistent. Marquez has made progress and seems more confident recently, okay, but history shows that he can easily hang on in a fight (Portimao), or simply wanting to do too much (Austin).

 

 

Conclusion

 

As you will have understood, both have solid weapons. Now it's time to take out the crystal ball.. Even if the points I have cited above (as well as those I have deliberately omitted for brevity) tip the balance in Bastianini's favour, I would still put my piece on Marc Marquez. Why? In my opinion, because the circuits that are coming up will create moments during which he is capable of shining. These are not tracks like the others. Japan, in particular, with its big braking, Thailand and its fights, or Australia, its freezing cold, its close races. I am convinced that it is genius that will make the difference. As you know, Marquez has a much better instinct than the rest of the grid, which will allow him to take this third place in the championship. We will see if my prediction is confirmed by then. !

I'm curious to know what you think! So tell me in the comments!

As a reminder, this article only reflects the thoughts of its author, and not of the entire editorial team.

Cover photo: Michelin Motorsport