Let’s talk MotoGP: Martin and Bagnaia are strange – 2/2

Since yesterday, we have been trying to understand this 2024 championship that no one seems to want. Indeed, neither Bagnaia nor Martin have managed to take the lead. It is rather strange, and even quite paradoxical because no one can deny their superiority race after race. As promised, today we are going to look at another question: Are we witnessing a rather "weak" or "strong" season? In order to understand the ins and outs of this analysis, I strongly advise you to read the first part by clicking here.

 

A short introduction

 

Contrary to a widely shared thought in our society, not all victories are equal, and therefore, world titles either. History reminds us of this constantly. The manner plays a big part, as does the aura that surrounds the actors. Some pilots will be remembered with nostalgia in 150 years while others, perhaps more prolific, will be totally forgotten.

 

 

Definition

 

Let's start by defining the terms. What is a season? " weak " ou "strong" ? These words are frequently used to describe a championship, a cup or any other competitive event. It is about determining whether the protagonists of said competition are very strong compared to the average of previous champions – and therefore, to the history of the sport – or rather below, understand that they benefit from a favorable context which makes the final victory easier.

Some examples to illustrate this notionThe 2015 season was "strong" - probably the strongest in history with 1989 - because it saw Valentino Rossi, Marc Marquez, Jorge Lorenzo and Dani Pedrosa, to a lesser extent. These four drivers are among the best of all time, and have given us a high-flying season with great victories as well as astonishing performances that demonstrated their highly developed racing science. The Sepang shambles only added legend to legend. You will agree that it was "historic", no matter who you supported.

 

 

On the contrary, the 2020 season was "weak". This does not mean that Joan mir was not good, of course, but his title does not have the same historical value as Lorenzo's in 2015, Marquez's in 2013, or Lawson's in 1989. It was much more often marked by the shortcomings of the favorites (Alex Rins' injury, Fabio Quartararo's fall in the standings after two victories, etc.) than by the prowess of its main players. Mir has only won one race and never started from pole. I am sure that many viewers who have recently joined our community would have a hard time believing that Mir was once a world champion if they had not seen it on Wikipedia. The worst part is, I don't blame them.. I think you understand my point.

 

What do you think about the 2024 season?

 

Now, we would need to find ways to determine whether a season is rather "strong", or " weak ". It's not easy at all. One of my favorite tools is definitely the average points scored per race. The higher it is, the more we are in the presence of monsters who dominate. And the more drivers there are with high averages, the more often they are found at the forefront.. To simplify things, I will express this average as a percentage of points taken compared to the total points that could be taken. It is much more visual since we went from a base of 25 units per race weekend to 37 with the Sprints.

If we rely on this criterion to qualify the 2024 financial year, then we are currently following a season "rather weak". Martin and Bagnaia fall a lot, it's true, and are caught up by Marc Marquez, third only 53 points behind the leader. In addition, Martin, first, has only won two Grands Prix out of thirteen. For information, the two leaders have amassed 64% of the available points, which is in the low average on the scale of motorcycling history.

 

 

But if you have read the first part of this analysis, then you know there are rational explanations for this. The similar approach of the two protagonists leads to a paradox that puts the weakness of this championship into perspective.

 

Bagnaia and Martin above the rest

 

Of course, they score little because they fall often.. But on the scale of a race weekend, they are almost unbeatable. They act as if the championship only lasts three days, but there are twenty in the year. Anyone who watches the Grand Prizes can only note this gap between them and the others, even Marc Marquez if we zoom out enough.

A single figure to realize the domination of the Bagnaia/Martin pair. The two finished first in more than 61% of all the important sessions contested (pole, Sprint and GP). In detail, They have won 69% of all Grands Prix, 61% of all Sprints, and 53% of all qualifying sessions.. It's amazing.

There is another way to guess whether a season is "strong" or "weak": the eye. In 2020, we were less vibrant, it was obvious. OWe didn't necessarily understand why a particular driver was the one who stood out, why he was ahead, why so much, etc. In 2024, everything is clear, especially the gap with the rest of the field.

Okay, Marc Marquez has won two races in a row. But that's a good argument to call this season "strong", which will be my conclusion. Marquez, eight-time world champion, on a Ducati, in top form, has "only" taken two races from the monsters that lead. Look at Bastianini, an excellent driver with a very powerful GP24, and the delay he constantly has on the two thieves. Look, in qualifying, how Bagnaia and Martin achieve their best laps, which fall on the heads of the opponents like lightning. They are impressive, strong, and only their particular style penalizes them from time to time.

 

 

Conclusion

 

Ultimately, all this leads us to a most subjective analysis.. If, for you, the players in the 2020 championship were more impressive, then so be it. But I want to highlight the quality of the protagonists of this 2024 exercise, who are multiplying performances that are too often trivialized because of their equipment, or, perhaps, their behavior. Their low averages are explained in particular by this desire to attack, not to calculate. This is why Martin came back to put on rain tires when he only had to follow what Bagnaia was doing. It was a mistake, but dictated by instinct and passion, the desire to stand out, to win. This is why they will be so hard to beat. This season is “strong”, for sure.

I'm curious to know what you think about this question and these digressions. So, tell me in the comments!

As a reminder, this article only reflects the thoughts of its author, and not of the entire editorial team.

Cover photo: Michelin Motorsport