Pecco Bagnaia, in the midst of his race for the MotoGP world title, has suffered another setback. Yet another fall at the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix has ruined his efforts of two weeks ago. So let's ask the real questions: Did Pecco lose the number 1 in the gravel trap of Misano, his circuit? Analysis.
A very delicate situation
If you have been following this topic for a while, you know that I rarely worry about Pecco Bagnaia. He has proven, since the second part of the 2022 season, that he is the best driver "with his back to the wall". No one is as dangerous as him with a delay on the grid. He was capable, just last year, of truly mind-blowing performances in critical moments. I refer you to this victory at the Indonesian Grand Prix, where he overcame all his competitors by starting from 13th position.
Yet, I have rarely been as pessimistic about him as I am today. Bagnaia, as strong as he is, cannot beat mathematics. And they are against him. He is 24 points behind with six races to go, that is quite enormous. You will tell me, quite rightly, that he had taken much more from Fabio Quartararo in 2022 – more than 100 points cumulatively between Germany and Valencia.. Without taking anything away from Bagnaia's efforts because I maintain that he was the strongest in the world, the Frenchman had been in total loss since Assen. His average performances on a machine already behind the Desmosedici had allowed such a feat.
What about 2023? Again, Bagnaia was in a bad position two-thirds of the way through the season. But Jorge Martin didn't really worry the Italian on a purely mathematical level. For example, he has never finished a Grand Prix leading in points. And then, there is an important parameter to take into account: The Jorge Martin of 2024 is very different from that of last year.
A formidable opponent
Unless there is a surprise, I will continue to say that Pecco Bagnaia is the best rider. In all subjectivity; he does things on the handlebars that the "Martinator" cannot do. Whether he wins or loses the crown, by the way. But there is one quality that cannot be taken away from the Spaniard, this regularity in performance is more than impressive.
In my analysis, he lost the 2023 title not because of his crashes, but because of his lackluster races finishing outside the top 5. This year there are none. Martin is still ahead, no matter what. If we ignore his rather gross mistake in the first Grand Prix disputed at Misano, his fall at Jerez and his blunder in the last loops at Sachsenring, he is still in the running, in Sprint as in Grand Prix.
I think that for this world title, Bagnaia will not have to count on his opponent's mistakes because they are rare.. It is true that this season is refereed by the mistakes of the two protagonists, but Martin's lack of performance on Sunday is compensated by his errors at the same rate as Bagnaia. He triumphs less, but falls less.
So the Italian will have to win. And that he wins a lot, preferably. Above all, at 24 points behind, any mistake could be fatal for him, because Jorge Martin has openly declared that he is thinking about the world title – this is rare enough to be noted –. He will have to push his philosophy to the maximum, attack even more, because he is not in a position to wait for his opponent to fail, all without falling. The task promises to be very difficult.
A favorable period in Bagnaia
If the season was reversed, I think Bagnaia would have no chance. But since we finish with this overseas tour, then Valencia, then he will have opportunities. First, these circuits are inherently surprising. Many, like Marc Marquez, say that a new championship begins then. Then, and this is my main argument, Bagnaia has always been clearly superior to Jorge Martin on the following tracks.
India is no longer on the programme, and it was the only one in which the Spaniard had clearly dominated his opponent last year. In Japan, it will be tight, as in Thailand. But in these two countries, "Go Free" can easily compete with Jorge. For the rest, advantage Bagnaia. In Indonesia, as mentioned above, he had one of his best performances in his career – if not the best –, but had still been helped by Martin's fall from the head.
CAN YOU BELIEVE IT ?! 🤯@ 88jorgemartin has just been GIFTED a possible 29-point championship advantage! 💥#EmiliaRomagnaGP 🏁 pic.twitter.com/p0mUTnHABL
- MotoGP @ 🏁 (@MotoGP) September 22, 2024
In Australia, the Pramac rider had completely collapsed after a bad tire choice in 2023, while the official had opted for a near-perfect strategy. So Malaysia remains, where the gap between the two is the biggest. In 2022, Martin had crashed while Pecco delivered a stunning performance there. A year later, he was taken seven seconds by Bagnaia, certainly helped by non-compliant tire pressures.
Conclusion
Let's answer the question posed by the title. Personally, I think that only one driver is capable, at the moment, of winning five Grands Prix in a row; Pecco Bagnaia. His chances of winning the title have never been lower since the middle of the 2022 season, but the speed is with him, This is generally a good sign on the scale of history.
In my opinion, he can still go for that title because even though Martin is still very fast, he has shown on many occasions that he is not infallible, both mentally and on the track. Nothing is lost for now, this fall in Misano did not look like the one that puts an end to all hopes. It's hard to explain, but my theory is also based on an impression.
I'm curious to know what you think about it. So, tell me in the comments!
As a reminder, this article only reflects the thoughts of its author, and not of the entire editorial team.
Cover photo: MotoGP