After every race weekend comes the article that corresponds to the situation in the championship. This time, it is clear and simple: Pecco Bagnaia must answer Jorge Martin from the MotoGP Grand Prix of Thailand, it is a necessity. Twenty points separate them while there are only three races left to go, the situation is almost critical. Phillip Island will leave its mark.
Bagnaia disappointing
You know that I admire Pecco Bagnaia as a driver, as I do as a man, who is very pure in his approach to racing. At many times, I defended the flamboyance of Bagnaia, often in the same dimension as that of Jorge Martin. Since the beginning of the season, I have actually maintained that the two riders are actually very close to each other, at least in the way of looking at the race. Their strengths, on the handlebars, are the same. But while I expected a push from Pecco Bagnaia in the last rounds, His Australian Grand Prix was quite disappointing, overall.

The understanding is still cordial, unfortunately. Photo: Michelin Motorsport
First, in qualifying. Of course, there can always be problems, yellow flags, and a few moments can ruin a Q2. You can always find context to explain a driver's poor performance. MBut there was more than a second gap on the line compared to Martin.. It's rare at this level, and especially at this time of the season for Bagnaia.
Because that's why I was disappointed with his weekend. It's the third time in three years that Pecco has been forced to work himself to death, basically. Facing Fabio Quartararo in 2022, he had been brilliant at the end of the year, just like against Jorge Martin in 2023, although he was less of a danger than this season. With his back to the wall, he was the man to beat, capable of coming back from 13th place to win in Indonesia, or from 6th to crush the Grand Prix from Malaysia. There, he started 5th, which is not bad considering the gap that separated him from Martin in qualifying, and of course, Pecco came back in front.
But he has never been in the same category as Jorge Martin and Marc Marquez. Martin, as explosive as possible, delivered an XXL performance in Sprint. It is rare to escape so easily on a circuit like Phillip Island, where fights are legion. Bagnaia, only fourth, was a chicane for a Marquez on fire, nothing more. During the race, his best face was only illusory, I'm afraid. He didn't scare Martin and even less Marquez, and finished the race ten seconds behind the winner. You read that right.
Advantage Martinator 📈 @ 88jorgemartin leaves Phillip Island with a hefty 20-point gap on @PeccoBagnaia 💪#AustralianGP ???????? pic.twitter.com/5368Uccwsl
- MotoGP @ 🏁 (@MotoGP) October 20, 2024
So, the results, from an accounting point of view, are not so bad: he leaves Australia with 22 points without falling. You could say that he collected the most points possible, which is true. He could not have done much better. But that is the whole problem, it is not enough. And that won't be enough in Thailand, because Jorge Martin is just as fast – if not faster – in Buriram..
Is it over?
Honestly, it's not far off. I'd like a turnaround for a close finish in Valencia, but if Martin keeps up this momentum, his solidity won't make him lose twenty points in three races, including Sprints. I said before the overseas tour that Bagnaia shouldn't count on his rival crashing; just do better than him, all the time. But here, mathematically, that would mean that he should finish every race ahead of Martin, if we take into account the average of his positions throughout the year. Or, hope for a mistake. And on the scale of history, When you're waiting for an opponent to fall to win the title, it doesn't smell good..
In addition, Martin drove wonderfully well at Phillip Island, a circuit which nevertheless left him with a bitter taste after the disappointment of 2023.He rode like someone who was twenty points behind, and Bagnaia like someone who was twenty points ahead.. You see the whole problem. On the other hand, I think that contrary to what he said after the race, he could not have beaten this Marc Marquez even if he had nothing at all at stake. He tried, he dared, and I find that very honourable.

These two could be the animators of this end of year. Photo: Michelin Motorsport
Work in perspective
In Thailand, a bigger challenge awaits Bagnaia. We can't predict anything, but I don't see Martin slowing down. The Italian will have to win, impose himself, send a signal to affirm that he is the champion. It is high time to assert himself. These are the moments that make a man great, the kind you find in the history books. Pecco must play it very intelligently, because any fall would destroy his chances. He is not far enough behind to go for broke, but absolutely must make up points from Martin.
Last year, the "Martinator" had one of his best performances in Buriram., even though Bagnaia had not given up. This time, the tide must be turned. He still has reason for hope, of course. Phillip Island is a circuit that does not reflect the true dynamics of the moment ; it is common to celebrate surprise winners, without being able to explain their performance too much. Buriram, Sepang and the Ricardo Tormo are more representative tracks, a bit like those he is used to taming – Assen, Spielberg, Catalunya…
It's all on his shoulders. It's up to him to go get that title, Jorge Martin can't lose it anymore, unless he makes a huge mistake, of course.
I'm curious to know what you think about it. Tell me in the comments!

Martin is the big winner of this Grand Prix. He can hardly lose this title anymore. Photo: MotoGP
Photo: Michelin Motorsport