What will the profile of the world champion be in five, even ten years? This is the question we ask today, in this new episode. Think of it as a thought exercise based on arguments rather than a serious prognosis:
Obviously, 2030 is still a long way off and who knows what the world will look like by then.
All motor sports tend towards affordable spectacle, which meets the new standards set by social networks. According to very serious studies, our attention span is in free fall. This data has been well understood by “marketers”, who favor short formats to promote their product, on platforms like
TikTok for example. What does this have to do with MotoGP, you ask?
In fact, sports organizations have already understood this. In football, the idea of shorter matches to meet the expectations of “young people” has already been put forward by Florentino Pérez, President of Real Madrid. Motor sports are no exception to the rule: the duration of a Formula 1 Grand Prix has considerably reduced, and the introduction of sprint races is obviously going in this direction.
No need to remind you that in 2023, DORNA will test sprints with MotoGP style.
Could it be one of these two monsters? Photo: Michelin Motorsport
The point of all this is simple. Create short highlights (while the motorcycle Grands Prix were already one of the shortest sporting formulas on earth, all sports combined, only 45 minutes for a round), to keep the viewer hooked from start to finish, and use the action thus created to advertise the discipline. Please note: We in no way blame DORNA for this even though we have already said what we think of this new format.
It is a logical decision, in the “sense of history”.
Thus, the champion of the future will have to shine over short periods, and therefore, this requires intrinsic speed, explosiveness and everything related to velocity (poles, unsustainable race pace). This will be its greatest quality, sacrificing consistency. Safety will continue to evolve, and in a few years, the risk of a fall that compromises a season will be almost zero. Not that injuries will no longer exist, but the fear of injuries will be much less.
Moreover, this transition has already begun.
Bagnaia is the most convincing example. In 2022, it fell, then gained, then relapsed, then regained. His confidence was in no way affected by his falls, they no longer represented a "warning" as was the case before. Marc Márquez is not for nothing: it was he who introduced this style marked by arrogance, not at all shared by a Valentino Rossi or a
Jorge Lorenzo, which calmed down after large volumes.
On the pure driving side, it will be lethal, in line with a Lorenzo. Electronics are expected to “help” drivers more, and there is no doubt that they will take advantage of this progress to streamline their style and simplify it. It may be a bold bet, but we think that profiles like
Márquez ou Stoner will completely disappear. They are too specific to these geniuses, and depend too much on their era. Impossible, or almost, to duplicate them, and at the time of writing, no one involved seems to adopt this radical philosophy. On the other hand, Jorge Lorenzo was one step ahead. His naturally fast style, driven by an enormous racing IQ as well as crazy consistency, is taken up by the best. You can easily see “Por Fuera” in Bagnaia, Quartararo and Martín.
It would have been difficult to believe that Lorenzo was going to have so many “children”. Photo: Michelin Motorsport
Finally, who, today, embodies the pilot of the future? More or less those mentioned above.
Martín, if it has not yet completely exploded, is the perfect archetype of what DORNA would like to see at the top. He is young (an important dimension in a category with a high renewal rate), explosive, equipped with a culture of social networks, fast, even if he falls. Everything that's necessary.
bagnaia, Quarterly et
bastianini (a somewhat hybrid case) will be the big winners from this mutation, at least in the near future.
It is difficult to predict, for the moment, the breakthrough of a Bezzecchi or another, who also has strong potential. Not everyone can win.
Who will be the big losers? Even though it pains us to say it, certain profiles have already disappeared from the grids. We are thinking of those who, for the moment, are not able to achieve the breakthroughs that are so essential for their survival at the highest level, but who are delivering very solid seasons. This was the case of
Bradley Smith in the past, and today,
Luca marini seems to have taken on this role. Already in 2022, one or two good performances per season and nothing close seemed worth more than an honest learning campaign on an inferior machine. Unfortunately, we see this phenomenon growing in the coming years, moving towards the Formula 1 model. It's hard to blame anyone in history, because the customer remains the king of the market, and big brands simply adapt to demand. We are particularly curious to see how all this will evolve with society.
Who do you see dominating in five years? Will motorcycle sport radically transform? Tell us in the comments!
What about an Oliveira? Another particular, atypical profile, but which ultimately meets market demands. The Portuguese has it all. Photo: Michelin Motorsport
Cover photo: Michelin Motorsport
