Let's talk MotoGP: Who will shine in sprint racing?

MotoGP evolves in 2023. Indeed, the introduction of sprint races will definitely change the situation, and marks the entry into a new era, with 42 departures on the program and 787,5 points to take as much as possible. We have devoted a long analysis to sprint races, both how they work and their advantages and disadvantages; you can find these two articles by clicking on this highlighted sentence. Today, it's time to get wet: who will succeed in standing out? We have selected five drivers, with a surprise.

I) Jorge Martín

What will it take to perform in this short format? Speed, explosiveness, a good sense of overtaking and the aggressiveness to quickly get out of the peloton. Basically, we have described Martín's profile to you. We're not taking too many risks with this choice, that's for sure. But beyond his natural talent and his lightning speed, we really believe that the Spaniard can turn a corner in 2023.

After a mixed 2022 season but marked by dazzling moments (the poles of Phillip Island and Sepang, among others), Jorge Martin was not chosen by the Ducati factory team to replace Jack Miller, even though he could legitimately claim to do so. However, we see enormous potential in Martín, especially since his charisma supports the “ superstar ". It's certain: he has things to prove, because he must move into another dimension from 2023 if he wants to claim the title of world champion in the future. If he takes advantage of his qualities and manages to put his enthusiasm at the service of consistency in performance (like Jorge Lorenzo in his time), there is no doubt that he will be the big winner of the sprint format in 2023, and maybe even the championship.

II) Francesco Bagnaia

 

A good bike helps a lot, and not just in sprint racing. If we can't predict the future, there's a good chance Pecco will have a hair machine next year. And finally, what can stop him if he manages, early in the season, to put his finger on the right settings? Not much. The reigning world champion has almost no more flaws, and worse, he has only progressed in the 2022 campaign. As we write these lines, there is nothing the “Martinator” can do » which Bagnaia does not have in its arsenal. Logically, he should perform well in sprint races, especially since he benefits from a staggering burst of speed and a sense of overtaking worthy of the greatest drivers of this century.

III) Fabio Quartararo

Many seem to forget it after this 2022 season, but Quarta' remains a serious candidate for final victory, and de facto success in sprint races. Certainly, the pure speed of his machine works against him but his intrinsic qualities are similar to those of Pecco Bagnaia. If Yamaha manages to create a more efficient motorcycle, “El Diablo” should play up front, whether on Saturday afternoon or Sunday.

IV) Enea Bastianini

Here is our first daring choice. Indeed, and to our great surprise, many think that Enea Bastianini does not have the adequate profile to meet the challenge of sprint races. We think quite the opposite. First of all, he will benefit from one of the best machines on the board, that's obvious. Above all, it will highlight its qualities. The role of factory driver is different, and this could well slow him down, especially at the start of the season. But, if this is the case, then he will be penalized on Saturday as on Sunday. In the end, there is a strong chance that he will emerge a winner from this transfer, it is difficult to imagine a failure to adapt to such a versatile Desmosedici who, above all, evolves quickly. Many of you pointed out its main weakness: qualifications. In fact, it was the only weapon he was missing. Following the same thinking, a bad position at the start of a relatively short race would penalize him. But many factors refute this theory.

 

 

First, he was only second in 2022, in his second year. This means he can very well take a step up in qualifying for his third season in MotoGP. And fortunately he had at least one weak point, because if he had taken four poles in addition to four victories at Gresini, we could already have ranked him with the legends of this sport. Especially since he has had success in this exercise in the past, unlike a Miguel Oliveira For example. Second, qualifications are no longer as important as they used to be. We demonstrated it in a dedicated article, with supporting figures. Pole/win conversion rates are low, particularly since the introduction of the single ECU in 2016. Logically, these rates should increase somewhat by reducing the running distance but not more than reasonable. We often see bunch starts, with one or two drivers getting away quickly. Being well placed in qualifying will not ensure victory in a sprint race, and will not help much more than in a normal Grand Prix. There Most of the time, all groups are formed halfway.

Third, and most important reason: Bastianini not bad at the start of the race. So, yes, he's a great finisher and he hasn't led many laps in 2022. But unlike Johann zarco, also brilliant in this phase, Enea is always in the right group when he plays something. His projection capacity is very good, and should allow him to quickly escape from the pack and then join the lead; before starting his classic mining work (Le Mans, Malaysia). Finally, let's not forget his overtaking and his racing IQ, two determining elements even over a shorter distance. If he is well placed after 6-7 rounds, he will be able to develop his game as he does at a normal distance and undoubtedly win against anyone. Not everyone can say the same.

For all these reasons, we firmly believe that Enea Bastianini should not be excluded. This applies to the sprints, but also to the title race.

 

V) An outsider

Here is our surprise. Imagine for a moment that the drivers don't play the game. That is to say that faced with the risk that 12 laps at full speed represents, many try to play regularity and safety to ensure the points. This is exactly what happened in Formula 1 when the format was introduced. On two wheels, overtaking is easier. So we might see one or two drivers completely stand out and become specialists in their own right. It is difficult to give an exact name, but why not one? Aleix Espargaró or a Marco Bezzecchi. In any case, explosive profiles equipped with high-performance machines that play less big than the others, more uninhibited.

Of course we see you coming. Quid de Marc Marquez ? At the moment, it is too difficult to accurately anticipate his level of performance. Indeed, the Spaniard would have every interest not to push too much in these new rounds, because as we have discussed at length, he must change his approach to claim the title against new monsters. Afterwards, he can very well make us lie, of course; we do not disrespect him in any way. On paper, he has all the qualities to win in a sprint race, in a normal race, in the rain... Marquez is already good everywhere and that's why imagining him dominating only this format is complicated.

Who do you see as the winner of this new format? Tell us in the comments!

 

Cover photo: Michelin Motorsport