Let’s talk MotoGP: Why consistency is a myth – Part 2

Why is regularity in Grands Prix an overused concept? This is the question we are trying to answer. We strongly recommend that you read the first part, published yesterday, in order to understand all the issues of this study. You can find it right here!

In the previous episode, we noted the bias concerning the perception of a pilot and his regularity. Let's now focus on consistency over a season.

In reality, few pilots manage to compile good results without crashing or at least always scoring the same points. Most of the time these seasons go unnoticed. Indeed, current MotoGP is based on strong times, highlights, and it is preferable for a rider to achieve two very good results in the season and not show up the rest of the time, rather than only achieving sixth and seventh places. To illustrate this phenomenon, let's play a game. Would you rather be Miguel Oliveira, that is to say winning two races in a magnificent way but being considerably left behind in the championship, or rather Brad Binder, without a victory so far, but extremely consistent?

There isn't really a right answer, it's just a matter of interpretation. However, KTM management saw clearly and kept Brad Binder. The complexity of the notion of regularity is the reason why many struggle to understand the Austrian firm's choice to part ways with Oliveira.

If, for once, the regular driver is preferred, this is far from being systematically the case. When you don't win, you don't leave memorable memories that teams, spectators and journalists can hold on to. Take Morbidelli. It's a safe bet that his second place in the 2020 championship will take up a lot of space in his contract with Yamaha, when in fact, the Italian has been nowhere for a year and a half.

This is why no team gave a chance to Bradley Smith after his lackluster stint at KTM. The Englishman is quite simply one of the most consistent of his time, but teams judged that the ceiling he could reach was simply too low, not remarkable enough.

III) Is consistency important in the quest for a title?

Since 2016, not so much. The main data is speed. A world champion must go fast, play in front above all. Only the greatest champions of all time manage to combine speed and consistency on the three levels explained above. Here, the most convincing example is undoubtedly Marc Márquez, who, contrary to what one might imagine, is the most consistent of his generation as his 2019 season proves to us.

Pilots who are wrongly described as “regular” do not intentionally do so, and that is why this notion is so volatile. Take Aleix Espargaró this year. He is often found between third and eighth place, but quite simply because he cannot go any faster. So, certainly, he does not fall. This doesn't take anything away from his talent and his incredible 2022 year. Indeed, to score points, you must avoid falling. This is more common sense than strategy, and all drivers are aware of this.

 

It may be sad to say, but speed will (almost) always beat consistency. It is difficult to compare the seasons with each other, because each time, the context is different. Except 2006, 2013 et 2020, the fastest rider of the current year has always won the championship since the advent of MotoGP in 2002. Even when situations were tight, as in 2015 ou 2017. In 2022 again, Bagnaia, despite his four retirements, is ahead of Espargaró because his speed is simply too great.

Falls penalize less and less (and fortunately), because security increases. These days, it's quite rare to see a mistake that brings a driver's career to a grinding halt, although it can happen as our sport remains extremely dangerous. Thus, it is easier to build confidence despite abandonments for mentally strong pilots like Pecco, who manages, two weeks after a big volume, to get back on the top step of the podium.

Conclusion:

A driver who crashes, even often, is no more irregular than a driver who finishes 5th then 14th. Consistency is expressed in different ways, and is definitely no longer as important as rhythm, confidence and speed to prevail at the highest level in the world. This is the meaning of the story, and the sprint races in 2023 will only accentuate this phenomenon, highlighting the “performers” rather than the real ones “regular” often in the shadows.

What do you think about the question? Tell us your opinion in the comments, all will be read and discussed.

Cover photo: Michelin Motorsport