Let's talk MotoGP: Why Jorge Martín is unbeatable right now

No one can stop Jorge Martín except himself, the opportunity to talk about it in Let's Talk MotoGP. In Japan, he rewarded us with a new grand slam; pole, Sprint and Grand Prix. The dynamics of this season have changed, that's for sure, but new lessons can be learned after this weekend in Motegi. Let's review them, because the outcome of the 2023 championship may be in these.

 

Jorge Martín or the application of theory

 

The positive spiral is a very real effect. The domination of Jorge Martín (near 86% of points available on the last four rounds won by the Spaniard, and 95% over the last three, the term is correct) is uncontested. It perfectly illustrates the concept of dynamics so often used in this section. We have the impression that nothing can happen to him. In Motegi, he was perfect, there are no other words. Not the most comfortable on Friday, he turned the situation around in qualifying, then managed a Sprint without much difficulty. Until then, we knew his abilities to achieve this type of victory, but that of Sunday is all the more revealing.

In the wet, it's like it's invincible. One image caught our attention, in particular; his failure at turn 3 when the track was already wet. He brakes a bit late, gets out at the long lap, but as if it was written, returns to the track, gains ground and regains first place. It's confidence that speaks, nothing else. In these conditions, you have to be sure, and the limit is much more often psychological than physical; This theory was familiar to 1 Formula One world champion Damon Hill.

 

 

Everything succeeds for him – his overtaking of Quartararo in India is part of this logic – everything goes his way, until the next change in dynamics. Will it arrive before the end of the season? That's the whole question, because as it stands, no one can contest anything, or almost nothing. His destiny is in his hands.

 

The advantage over Bagnaia

 

Pecco was to try to turn the situation around in Japan by beating his opponent squarely. But that didn't happen. Attention ; not all won duels are opportunities to regain the advantage over a season (Silverstone 2013, Australia 2013, Motegi 2017, Austria 2019) but they contribute to it. And once again, just like in India, Bagnaia is the “beaten”. Second in qualifying, third in Sprint and second in the race, still behind the “Martinator”. Even if I continue to think that the Italian is a better MotoGP rider, it is clear that in terms of direct confrontation alone, the Spaniard has the upper hand.

If we exclude Mugello, where Pecco won exactly like Jorge Martín at Motegi, the Pramac Racing driver was not really in the game when “Go Free” was stringing together successes like pearls. Psychologically, it is not the same as losing points by being seventh rather than second, the second scenario is much more impactful. And when the two crossed swords, at the Sachsenring, it was Martín who emerged victorious.

 

 

Thus, the “Martinator” has every reason to be confident. First, he benefits from the status of challenger, and not favorite. He has absolutely nothing to lose, free from all pressure. As he said after Misano, it's not up to him to bring back the title for Ducati. Then, he knows that he has the ability to beat Pecco Bagnaia over a full weekend but also during a race. It's meager, certainly, but Bagnaia cannot boast of that.

 

Digression – Pecco Bagnaia did nothing wrong

 

This is what shocks us the most in this change of momentum. Usually, the course of events is always in favor of one pilot, then another when the first suffers a twist of fate, an action, a lost duel. But this was not to the detriment of Pecco. Apart from falling, he is impeccable and yet, that is not enough. As we studied after the Indian Grand Prix, Barcelona was a turning point of the season, without a doubt. But that should not have stopped Pecco's momentum because he came back very well in Misano, was not ridiculous in India and even less so in Japan. At the same time, Jorge Martín gained importance but the transition was extremely smooth, without a hitch.

 

 

Take past seasons; those that were disputed, of course. In 2022, the Fabio Quartararo after Assen no longer had anything to do with the previous one. In 2017, a 10th place in Catalonia was enough for Maverick Viñales to break the excellent momentum he had created, and so on. Also look at what's happening in Moto3, with Daniel Holgado's drop in points, which follows his big poor performance during qualifying in Catalonia. It's usually quite clear, frank, but not this time.

Bagnaia falls more, certainly, but is certainly not more irregular than Jorge Martín. He's no less fast either, no less explosive. Contrary to what one might think, the two have a very similar profile, whether in the approach of a season (average points per race very low, they rely on flashes) than in piloting (two children of Jorge Lorenzo). The appearance of this championship is quite difficult to grasp, and for the moment, I can't discern the moment when Bagnaia “lost everything” on the one hand, and the moment when Jorge Martín “won everything” on the other, even if the qualifying session at Misano is a first track. This requires more research, perhaps looking at other concepts relating to other disciplines. I still wanted to offer this line of thought.

What did you think of Jorge Martín's Grand Prix at Motegi? Tell us in the comments!

 

 

Cover photo: Michelin Motorsport