Let's talk MotoGP: Yamaha has (again) made a daring choice

It's been official for about a week: Miguel Oliveira will join Pramac Yamaha next year; a bold move by the Japanese manufacturer in view of its reconstruction in MotoGP. It could prove to be profitable in many ways, but will inevitably bring its share of doubts. Here we go for the analysis of a long-awaited signing.

 

A safe bet not so safe

 

For once, let's try to start by analyzing this maneuver from Yamaha's point of view. We will look at what Oliveira can gain from this in a second step.

A year ago I warmly asked the factory teams in MotoGP to recruit Oliveira. I have believed in him since 2015, and have ardently defended his results since his arrival in the premier class. The Portuguese is an excellent driver who has won excellent races in the past. That is a fact.

In this sense, I don't think any team can make a mistake in signing Miguel Oliveira. A bit like Maverick Vinales, he is a sure bet, one of the unbeatable players who never competes for the best places in the championship but who always ranks honorably. Pramac Yamaha was not wrong.

 

 

But the article I was referring to above was from a year ago, and more specifically, from the 2023 British Grand Prix. He was terrific there, with an almost emotional performance in the rain. Since then, a lot of water has flowed under the bridge.. That's not to say I've completely changed my mind about him, but let's just say a year is an eternity in MotoGP.

Since that famous Sunday at Silverstone, there hasn't been much to get your teeth into. His second half of the 2023 season with RNF Aprilia was more than disappointing, but this year was punctuated by numerous injuries from which he never really had time to recover. In shape after the winter, I expected much better in 2024, this time at Trackhouse Aprilia with a 2024 RS-GP.

Apart from the German GP, where he himself did not seem to understand why he was going so fast, there was nothing special. Yes, come on, this Sprint in Aragon, concluded in fifth position. When we compare his results to those of Maverick Vinales on equal bikes, or to those of an aging Aleix Espargaro, there is reason to ask questions.

 

 

On Sunday, Miguel only has one top 6 to his name, and two top 5s on Saturday, therefore. He also has some worrying results on tracks that usually suit the RS-GP. ; Assen, for example (15th). He did not shine as much as his teammate Raul Fernandez in Catalonia, who, let us point out, is still behind him in the general classification.

Oliveira is currently 13th, 19 points ahead of his colleague. That's okay, but nothing extraordinary. In any case, Pramac-Yamaha shouldn't expect a regular rider; Miguel is a man of great achievements, who can surprise his world three or four times a year... and even then. When was the Portuguese's last exploit? Thailand in 2022, in the rain? That was already two years ago. Silverstone 2023? Very strong, but ultimately, he didn't make the podium. When you take away those moments of genius, all that remains are his numerous retirements (already three on Sundays this season) and that crucial lack of speed on Saturday, which is even more penalizing now than in the past.

 

 

His new team will also have to deal with a frequently injured rider: a significant disadvantage in the context of a reconstruction. How can a team be reborn from its ashes when those who should be pulling the project upwards are not there? Look at Honda's lack of progress in 2023, while Joan Mir and Marc Marquez have missed so many races. In addition to Oliveira, Yamaha already has Alex Rins – an oddly similar profile in both approach and track record. If both of them go through the infirmary too often, then it could be a problem on a season-long scale.

That said, I still think that it is not a casting error. Nothing to do with the return of Dovizioso in 2021 for example. No, simply, it is quite risky even if this parameter is undoubtedly compensated by the technical sensitivity of Miguel Oliveira, widely welcomed by paddock players.

 

Did he have a choice?

 

Now let's analyze Miguel Oliveira's decision; which will be shorter, I assure you. What do you think? Well, for a driver who said he had plenty of choice for 2025, I remain a little hungry. What team could have embodied a riskier choice than this one? Apart from Honda and its two teams, I don't see.

Miguel continues his career in MotoGP but I don't see him coming out of the soft belly, in which he has remained for a very long time. Even though he is an excellent developer, I don't see him doing better than Fabio Quartararo riding the YZR-M1, for example. Yamaha's return to business will take time, and probably too much, unfortunately, for a rider who is already 29 years old. Perhaps his hard work, carried out in the shadows, will benefit his successor rather than him.

I'm curious to know what you think of this signature. Tell me in the comments!

As a reminder, this article only reflects the thoughts of its author, and not of the entire editorial team.

 

 

Cover photo: Michelin Motorsport