While he had a first match point in Australia, the Thailand Grand Prix of Moto2 appears to be a more credible deadline for Ai Ogura to wrap up the title race in the intermediate class. The Japanese now has only three rivals in the championship, and has a serious lead over each of them.
Ai Ogura can approach the final three rounds of the season with a certain serenity, as he currently has a 65-point advantage over his closest pursuer in the Moto2 Riders' standings.
With only 75 points still at stake, if the Japanese driver does not score a single point by the end of the season, Aron Canet should at least win once (25 points) and take two second places (20 points), in order to hope to catch up with number 79 on the scoreboard.
While it therefore seems obvious that the future Trackhouse driver will win the title sooner or later this season, the question remains when. While he still had eight opponents in Australia, Only three drivers can still block his path, and their chances of doing so are slim. All drivers who are already more than 75 units behind Ogura are already mathematically out of the race.
Before the next round in Buriram (Thailand), behind Aron Canet, Fermin Aldeguer and Sergio Garcia are tied on points, and are therefore both 66 points behind the leader of the standings. One more than Canet.
As a reminder, only 50 points will still be up for grabs after this weekend's Grand Prix, 25 in Malaise, and 25 more in Valencia, during the last round of the season.
Ogura champion in Thailand if…
To take the world crown in Thailand, Ai Ogura will have to be careful not to concede more than fifteen points to Aron Canet, and more than 16 points compared to Aldeguer and Garcia.
Fifth place, which is worth eleven points, would therefore be enough to clinch the title if Aron Canet wins. If the other two win, Ogura could be satisfied with finishing sixth. Knowing that he has not finished outside the top four in the last five Grands Prix, there is a good chance that the title will be awarded to him in Thailand.
If none of his three rivals win, and one of his pursuers finishes at least second (20 points), an eleventh or tenth place would be enough. Here again, the British Grand Prix marks the only time Ai Ogura has not managed to finish a race in the top-8 this season, apart from his withdrawal in Austria, before the start of the race.
If none of his opponents finish on the podium, the Japanese will not have to score a single point to be crowned champion in Thailand. Given the favourable circumstances listed above, and ruling out the risk of injury, it is unlikely that the deadline will be postponed to the following week in Malaysia.
Having arrived in the intermediate class at the dawn of the 2021 season – after having obtained his best result in the previous season in Moto3, with a third place – the Japanese rider has continued to gain momentum. Second in 2022, at the end of an intense fight for the title with Augusto Fernandez, the MT Helmets Msi rider has found an opportunity to take his revenge this season.
While the lower class championships could find their new champion prematurely, the MotoGP championship should keep all its promises until the end. As a reminder, Jorge Martin only has a twenty-point lead over Pecco Bagnaia before the Thai meeting.
The Moto2 Riders standings before the Thailand GP:
