The 10 days of rest that the MotoGP riders benefited from after the Teruel Grand Prix are slowly coming to an end, and it is time to take advantage of them to analyze the situation before the last three Grands Prix of this atypical 2020 season. At least, hoping that this will come to an end, despite the uncertainties linked to the government position of Portugal after the Formula 1 Grand Prix which took place in Portimao really did not make a good impression in the health situation current: 14 positive cases in the paddock and, above all, some of the 27500 spectators crowded together despite the barrier gestures currently in force.
We will see and, in the meantime, it is therefore a maximum of 75 points what can a driver still win before the end of the season.
On a purely mathematical level, this still leaves a theoretical chance to Takaaki Nakagami, Pol Espargaró, Jack Miller, Miguel Oliveira, Danilo Petrucci, Brad Binder, Álex Márquez and Johann Zarco to snatch the title from Portugal, but with a more conservative approach we will consider that it should not escape Joan Mir, Fabio Quartararo, Maverick Viñales, Franco Morbidelli, Andrea Dovizioso or Álex Rins.
These six contenders are only separated by 32 points, and the first 11 Grands Prix have clearly shown us, with 8 different winners, that stability was hardly required in this 2020 season...
In this regard, Joan mir fared the best with a single blank result at Brno and a worse place of 11th at Le Mans. The only problem with this very solid course is that the Suzuki driver has never yet reached the top of the podium in the premier category and generally does not achieve extraordinary qualifications. However, with a 14-point lead over his closest rival and a GSX-RR that seems incredibly manageable, the Mallorcan will undoubtedly be a tough opponent to catch on the Valencia turnstile...
fabio quartararo, the leader of the championship from the opening in Jerez, lost command twice: The first at Misano-1 against Andrea Dovizioso, the second at Aragón-1 against Joan Mir. The only driver to have won 3 victories this year at Jerez-1, Jerez-2 and Barcelona, the Frenchman conceded 2 blank results at Misano-1 and Aragón-1 but also a modest 13th place in Styria. These very irregular results are generally attributable to technical problems poorly controlled by his team (brakes, overpressure of the front tire, rear grip). The devil always hides in the details and, this time, things are clear: No more room for error is granted to El Diablo who is inevitably under additional pressure!
With only one victory at Misano-2, Maverick Vinales also experienced his share of adventures, in particular during the Austrian tour where he recorded a blank result. The Yamaha rider often experiences spectacular changes of pace in the race but remains an all the more solid opponent as he took points from Fabio Quartararo during the two rounds in Aragón.
Last tip of the Yamaha trident, Franco Morbidelli remains on a 2nd victory at Aragón-2 after that obtained at Misano-1. Confidence is therefore essential, in the last part of the season where this will be important, especially since the Italian driver has an M1 A-spec which does nothing to the factory models of the other Iwata drivers on a circuit like the Ricardo Tormo…
With three Yamahas behind Joan Mir, one might believe that the advantage is in the case of Iwata. Be careful, however, of the M1's two weak points: Very sensitive to grip conditions, it needs a free track to establish its rhythm, hence the importance of qualifying and starts...
Three times vice-world champion in recent years and leader of the ranking in Misano, Andrea Dovizioso counted heavily on Aragón's long straight to get closer to the top of the standings. But to the great displeasure of the Italian, it was the in-line 4 cylinders which won and the official Ducati rider is now 28 points behind Joan Mir: That's a lot coming into a double round in Valencia and the future test driver must bitterly regret his blank result in Barcelona!
Alex Rins is still officially in the race, although at 32 points. With a victory at Aragón-1 and two blank results in Austria and at Le Mans, the Suzuki driver has nothing left to lose and will be happy to come and play the troublemaker among those who are really fighting for the title. And it might even work!
In the end, it would be very rash to make a prediction as to the result that will conclude this season without its reigning champion. We will probably have to wait until the final event to celebrate a new world champion...and that's good!
