For several months, the question was whether Marc Marquez could get back into the title race after his difficult start to the season and his physical problems. That question is no longer really relevant. The real question is now much more worrying for his rivals: how can they prevent him from becoming world champion? For Jorge Lorenzo, the answer might well lie… in the calendar.
The five-time world champion believes that Marc Marquez possesses an advantage that no one else can claim this season. An advantage that is measured neither in points nor in pure speed, but in the opportunities offered by certain circuits that are yet to be contested.
« It has three advantages that others don't: Aragón, Phillip Island, and Valencia. All left-hand corner circuits. " explains Lorenzo in his podcast Duralavita.
This analysis is particularly interesting when one recalls the demonstration carried out at Sachsenring. The pilot Ducati he secured pole position and won the Sprint and dominated the Grand Prixconfirming once again that a circuit that is predominantly left-handed remains his favorite playground.
Lorenzo goes even further in its analysis. If he arrives on these circuits while the standings are still very close, he could have a considerable competitive advantage. The other pilots do not have such a decisive weapon. »
And especially : " I think that when he arrives on a circuit with a predominance of left-hand corners, like these three, He has an 80 to 90% chance of winning »
The statistic may seem provocative, but ultimately it is not so far removed from the historical reality of Marc Marquez. Sachsenring, Aragón ou Austin have regularly transformed their weekends into technical and psychological demonstrations in front of the rest of the field.
There where Jorge Lorenzo What it offers is an interesting perspective: it encourages us to look beyond just the overall standings. championnat It's not just about the points scored. It's also about the points "expected" by the players. And in this arena, Marc Marquez probably has the best schedule of the title contenders.
For Jorge Lorenzo, the championship isn't over, it's almost just beginning.
Another point highlighted by Lorenzo Obviously, not all circuits are favorable. Marc Marquez that holds the top spot. " On circuits with right-hand corners, everything is much more balanced. This world championship is becoming truly exciting.In other words, the Spaniard does not have an absolute advantage over the entire calendar. His advantage is simply more identifiable than that of his rivals.
Jorge Martin, Ai Ogura ou Fabio Di Giannantonio They can obviously perform better on certain tracks. The difference is that none of them currently possess three circuits which the entire paddock already seems to consider will need to be beaten Marc Marquez…if that is even possible.
Lorenzo also reserved very complimentary words for Ai Ogurawhose consistency continues to impress. For me, one of Ogura's strengths is that he never fallsHe's a pilot who makes very few mistakes. »
The old pilot Yamaha particularly appreciated his overtaking on Raul fernandez au Sachsenring that holds the top spot. " The most beautiful moment of the race belonged to Ogura. It was a magnificent maneuver.. »
A compliment that is not insignificant when one considers the technical requirements of Jorge Lorenzo in terms of piloting. If the Japanese driver continues on this trajectory, he could well become the most dangerous opponent of Marc Marquez on circuits that are less favorable to him.
Finally Lorenzo was more cautious regarding Peter Acosta and his ambitions with KTM that holds the top spot. " He will try to secure victory with the KTM, But he will need to be smart to avoid injuries and not push the motorcycle beyond its limits. »
This piece of advice perfectly sums up the young Spaniard's current situation. His talent is undeniable, but the KTM does not yet allow it to compete naturally with Ducati et Aprilia that holds the top spot. " To compete with the Aprilias and Ducatis, he will have to take significant risks, and controlling this impulse will not be easy. "Concludes Jorge Lorenzo.
For several weeks, the analysis of the 2026 MotoGP championship has focused primarily on the points gaps between the title contenders. Jorge Lorenzo It ultimately invites us to look elsewhere.
Si Marc Marquez He has closed to within just a few points of the leaders despite his early-season physical problems, and he still has three races remaining that the entire paddock already identifies as major opportunities. The championship is extremely tight at the summer break. But it may be even more lopsided than it appears when the calendar is released.
What if the true teammate of Marc Marquez In the race for the 2026 title, was it ultimately… the calendar itself?
