For weeks, all eyes have been on Marc Marquez's incredible comeback. Returning from injury 101 points behind in the championship, the Ducati rider is now only 18 points behind the leader after a series of impressive performances that are already being hailed as one of the greatest comebacks in MotoGP history. But this narrative may have a blind spot…
Because while George Martin monopolizes attention as the leader of championnatAnother pilot methodically continues his ascent without making much noise: Ai OguraAnd for British journalist Mat Oxley, it is precisely him that Marc Marquez should consider him as his main rival in the second half of the season.
Interviewed in the podcast Oxley BomMat Oxley left no doubt about his analysis. Without a doubt, if he continues on his current trajectory, and that is generally the case, So he is undoubtedly Marc's greatest rival »
A judgment that may be surprising at first glance. Jorge Martin is still leading the championship and remains a natural title contender. However, its season has been marked by chronic inconsistency since the start of the year, whileAi Ogura continues to gain momentum.
The Japanese driver has become the very embodiment of consistency. He wins, reaches the podium, and makes very few mistakes. Above all, he seems to understand his RS-GP perfectly, to the point of being today the best representative ofAprilia in the championship.
Marc Marquez already understood this
For Oxley, Marc Marquez obviously doesn't just look at the overall standings. And he'll rewatch many races, wondering, "How can I beat this guy? What are his weaknesses?" »
The British journalist continued: This won't be limited to the races. He'll be observing qualifying and the media, as they'll be together at the press conferences. »
Because that's also what top-level MotoGP is all about. The battle isn't fought solely on the track. It's also built on observing the behavior, statements, and psychological reactions of the rivals.
Mat Oxley even recounted an interesting anecdote that occurred after the German Grand Prix. After the Sachsenring, there's the rest area before the podium (…) Ogura said: “Could you have gone even faster?” "The response of Marc Marquez was particularly laconic: I do not know »
For Oxley, this response is far from insignificant. Marc will study these kinds of things and will know how to sow doubt"This interpretation should obviously be taken with caution." Marc Marquez is known for his ability to psychologically manage his opponents since his MotoGP debut, but seeing a deliberate strategy in each of his responses is sometimes more a matter of journalistic analysis than certainty.
One thing is undeniable, however: when a pilot like Marc Marquez begins to consider an opponent as a credible threat to the championship, he analyzes absolutely everything.
Less than Ai Ogura He is the man no one talks about enough. He is probably the real subject of this 2026 season. Ai Ogura continues to receive far less media coverage than the established stars of the league. Yet, his performances today are difficult to dispute.
His consistency also impressed several paddock observers, including Francis Bagnaiawho himself recently acknowledged that the Japanese player possessed the necessary speed to compete with Marc Marquez.
And unlike some more spectacular drivers, Ogura gives the impression of always running with remarkable control of his abilities.
While Mat Oxley's analysis may seem provocative, it is based on a fairly simple logic. George Martin He obviously has the tools to become world champion, but his relationship with the... is sometimes complicated.ApriliaHis inconsistent performances and the many questions surrounding the end of his season make him a more unpredictable candidate today.
Ai OguraHe, on the other hand, is improving almost race after race and doesn't seem to have reached his performance ceiling yet. In a title fight that could come down to just a few points, consistency is often more valuable than flashes of brilliance.
Marc Marquez is perhaps on the verge of one of the greatest comebacks in recent MotoGP history. But if he wants to turn this spectacular resurgence into a world title, he will undoubtedly have to keep a closer eye on the unassuming Japanese rider than on the flamboyant championship leader. Because sometimes, the most dangerous rival is precisely the one no one talks about the least.
