MotoGP: Who will win at Mugello?

A couple of years ago, it was customary to describe the Ducati MotoGP as dragsters, much more powerful than their opponents in a straight line but not very comfortable when turning...

But under the leadership of Gigi Dall'Igna, the Desmosedici have evolved well, and if they had to bow to the Yamaha of Maverick Vinales et Fabio Quartararo in Qatar, a place which is nevertheless conducive to the productions of Borgo Panigale on paper, they took their revenge with a double at Jerez, a delicate track where the last victory dates back to 2006, then repeated a double at Le Mans where, with the help of the rain, Jack Miller, Johann Zarco and Francesco Bagnaia were particularly fast!

After this turnaround in the Yamaha/Ducati clash which has been looming since winter testing, the Italian manufacturer presents itself at Mugello and its interminable straight with three machines in the top 4, a situation never known before, before others routes theoretically also beneficial to the reds…

Suffice to say that the advance of a small point of Fabio Quartararo on Francis Bagnaia is hanging by a thread and it will take all the talent of the French driver to try to at least save the furniture while waiting for a Barcelona circuit which smiled on him last year.

At Mugello, the Borgo Panigale machines have won the last three editions and have been on the podium since 2015. The logical favorite to continue this momentum therefore appears to be Jack Miller. With his very clear victory at Le Mans obtained in difficult conditions, and despite two Long Lap penalties and a passage in the gravel, the Australian extended his domination of Jerez with panache and it seems logical to say that he will now read the Mugello statistics with optimism rather than stress. Can he achieve a third consecutive victory?

In addition to that of a championship leader with full confidence, fabio quartararo, he will have to reckon with the opposition of his own teammate, Francesco Bagnaia, who only conceded one point to the French driver and showed great maturity at Le Mans in very delicate conditions, finding himself in 19th position just after the start then moving up to 4th place despite, as Jack Miller, two Long Lap penalties!

And then, of course, how can we not include among the contenders for victory a certain Johann zarco, 2nd at Le Mans and currently 3rd in the championship, who, when asked by Claude Michy about his favorite Grand Prix to obtain his first success in the premier category, did not hesitate to answer “Mugello” !
Bringing his employers a victory on their land is therefore a long-term project for the French pilot who has never ceased, and still does not cease, to amaze us...

Finally, to limit ourselves to these four logical possibilities would be to have a poor understanding of a MotoGP which always surprises us. The statistics on paper are what they are, but who predicted that Marc Marquez would be leading the French Grand Prix ten days ago, that the two Suzukis would fall almost at the same time or that Franco Morbidelli was going to go through his box to have his knee reattached before leaving?

The Italian Grand Prix has taken place at Mugello since 1991 but if the latest winners are Danilo Petrucci (Ducati, 2019), Jorge Lorenzo (Ducati, 2018) and Andrea Dovizioso (Ducati, 2017), today placing Ducati at the top among the bookmakers, Yamaha has also written a very good story on the shelves: Jorge Lorenzo (Yamaha, 2016), Jorge Lorenzo (Yamaha, 2015), Marc Marquez (Honda, 2014), Jorge Lorenzo (Yamaha, 2013), Jorge Lorenzo (Yamaha, 2012), Jorge Lorenzo (Yamaha, 2011) for the recent period, while Valentino Rossi triumphed there from 2002 to 2008, first on Honda then on Yamaha from 2004, followed by Casey Stoner (Ducati, 2009) and Dani Pedrosa (Honda, 2010).