Let's talk MotoGP: What you shouldn't miss in Valencia

The season is almost over. All that remains is the Valencia Grand Prix, which always holds a special place in the hearts of fans. This unique circuit, which hasn't been on the calendar since Pecco Bagnaia's championship win in 2023, often delivers some truly one-of-a-kind races. In the championship, everything important is decided, except for fourth place! So, who will take the victory?

 

Bezzecchi's position is secure

 

First, let's start by looking back at the third place of Marco Bezzecchiwhich seems to me to be already assured even though mathematically it is not the case. Indeed, the Italian has a 35-point lead over Pecco Bagnaia, who is fourth.Therefore, the official Ducati rider would have to win both races, and the "Bez" would have to score no points in either the Sprint or the Grand Prix, more or less. This is highly improbable, and that's why I consider his third position to be valid. as a given.

 

 

While the concept of merit is ultimately quite vague in this world, we can still say, that a third place in the championship is a just reward for his efforts this seasonIt wasn't a sure thing, and yet he managed to defy the odds and achieve his best season ever. We'll talk about it again after Valencia, don't worry, but in my opinion, he had a better campaign than in 2023, when he won three Grands Prix. So it's well deserved, and I'm pleased because I love this driver. Furthermore, I don't think he'll hold back at all; Bezzecchi will give everything for the victory, because you have to strike while the iron is hot.Ducati is beatable, and Aprilia had already shown speed on this track in 2023, as evidenced by Vinales' pole position.

 

Acosta or Bagnaia, who will be the favorite in Valencia?

 

The real question, as you will have understood, concerns Pedro Acosta and Pecco Bagnaia. Acosta is only three points behind "Go Free" with one round to play, and the momentum is clearly in its favor.In the past, KTMs have also been quite fast in Valencia, and I think he'll have a great chance of overtaking the Italian in the standings. Let's take a closer look at this race within the race. It's time to get out the crystal ball.

I like to make a prediction, so here's a little guess. Feel free to share yours in the comments, by the way. As is often the case these days, it's very difficult to predict Bagnaia's speed. But if we look at his recent performances, I think he's going to show some good things – he's been better in that regard since Malaysia. The problem is that it often falls, and it still experiences air pockets on Saturday afternoons, a problem that it has never been able to solve in 2025.

 

 

Therefore, I can easily see him outclassing Acosta in qualifying, because, as surprising as it may seem, The official KTM rider's speed hasn't allowed him to shine in this discipline since the start of the season.Bagnaia quite likes Valencia, where he has already won two world titles and delivered one of his best performances in 2023. While Acosta also won there in 2022, during his first season in Moto2, he also experienced more challenging results. But this isn't really significant, because the sample size is small.

Thereby, I see Acosta as much stronger once the lights are out.In recent rounds, Bagnaia wasn't even competing at the same level as Acosta, with the exception of Malaysia. Furthermore, the Spaniard has been quite consistent since mid-season and crashes far less often. He has made a few mistakes – including one that cost him dearly in Japan – but what he's shown recently, particularly in Indonesia, leads me to believe he'll overtake Bagnaia in the overall standings, and quite easily at that.

If that happens, it will be perfectly deserved, because I think Acosta is doing wonderfully well with a bike that isn't all that powerful. His dominance at KTM can be compared to that of Fabio Quartararo at Yamaha. Except that in Acosta's case, it's Binder instead of Rins and Bastianini instead of MillerDo what you want with this information.

In what order do you see the two finishing in Valencia? Who will be fourth in the league at the end of the year? Tell me in the comments!

As a reminder, this article only reflects the thoughts of its author, and not of the entire editorial team.

 

 

Cover photo: Michelin Motorsport