It's prediction time! Every season, this column tries to guess what will happen in the coming months, focusing on all the drivers in the category. Then, at the end of each article, the author will make a prediction, but will also welcome yours in the comments! Today, it's time to talk about Jorge Martin.
Yesterday, we revisited the case of Pedro Acosta; click here to find the article in question.
Total questioning
In the category of articles that are difficult to write, I nominate the one about Jorge Martin. How can we make a prediction when we've seen almost nothing from him since the end of the 2024 season? And yet, I'm going to play along.
Let's summarize. So we have a rider who spent more or less the entire year of 2025 in the infirmary, literally: he was injured during the Sepang 2025 tests, then again during the Qatar GP, then once more in Japan, and, finally, was not declared fit to take part in the Sepang 2026 tests. So, for over a year now, the "Martinator" has been dragging this ball and chain around his ankle.which prevented him from defending his world championship title MotoGP hard-earned.
I don't even know whether to be optimistic or pessimistic. On the one hand, yes, I know his talent, which has been recognized since he started racing in Moto3. He has incredible speed, only matched by Fabio Quartararo on the grid – in my opinion. What he can do in a qualifying session is insane.. And then, in the chaos of 2025, I still managed to remember one race : his Hungarian Grand Prix, where he made a rather exceptional comeback on a most tortuous circuit.
But I have to rely on that to make a prediction about him, that's all. Indeed, on the other hand, he pushed hard, exerted a lot of pressure, and made quite a few questionable decisions. like that obviously too hasty return to Losail, and that strike at the start in Motegi. Excluding Hungary, he competed in six races, and none of them were truly remarkable.
Has he lost his speed? Probably not, but such serious successive injuries can definitively destroy a driver's career. The fracture is sometimes mental and not physical. Franco Morbidelli and Alex Rins are two riders who have clearly been psychologically impacted by their injuries. So, yes, Jorge is clinging to the Marquez example. But in history, such guys can be counted on one hand. I'm not saying that the "Martinator" won't be able to return to his former level, because he seems motivated and is still relatively young (28 years old), but simply that it will be very difficult.
Perhaps he is making things more complicated for himself.
The year 2025 also revealed Jorge Martin's darker side. While he was injured and his boss, Massimo Rivola, was pulling out all the stops to change the regulations in favor of a private test for his protégé, Jorge Martin himself, was already cozying up to Honda with the aim of switching teams as early as 2026I must admit that I didn't like it very much. And then, even before the start of the Sepang tests, in which he wasn't participating, we learned that Martin would be very interested in a Yamaha ride for 2027. A prioriIt would almost be done, actually..
Nobody knows what the pecking order will look like at the start of 2027. Yes, perhaps the future Yamaha will be better than the future Aprilia. But I can't help but think that it's, on the one hand, low for a MotoGP world champion to "thank" the team that took him in after his forced departure from Ducati, and, on the other hand, not very smart. Aprilia, I believe, has the right to be respected given the work they've done in recent years. You only have to look at the difference in commitment to the brand between Martin and Bezzecchi to understand the inherent dynamics of these two pilots.
For Martin, I don't think this is a very good solution. First, his reputation – which wasn't the best to begin with regarding contract breaches, just ask Pit Beirer – risks getting worse in the paddock. Do we really want to sign a rider who has been injured a lot in recent years, and who, on top of that, will not hesitate to hastily break the agreement in order to take advantage of a better situation? I leave you to be the judge.
Then, simply because of its performance. Aprilia isn't fooled, and certainly not in service of Martin, who must have cost them dearly in points in 2025. The Noale firm recently stated that it wouldn't stop developing the RS-GP in 2026, but do you think Rivola and company are more inclined to listen to the team's new darling Marco Bezzecchi or to a Jorge Martin who is already leaving before it's even started? Naturally, the Italian will have priority, whether it's regarding the direction to take or the parts to test.And he will have deserved it, in my opinion.
Time for the prediction!
Well, actually, I'm quite optimistic about Jorge Martin. He says he's 100% fit, and yes, he's not going to deny it, but I tend to believe him. After all, he's still a very good driver, and that's what counts. I had a lot of trouble placing him, but I can easily see him finishing between the... 7e et 9e position in the overall standings at the end of the season. That wouldn't be bad at all.To give you a reference, he's behind Fermin Aldeguer and Di Giannantonio, Alex Marquez and Pedro Acosta, of course, but ahead of the Marini/Morbidelli/Fernandez/Zarco group, which I imagine to be very close.
Why ? Because I believe that Martin will still benefit from a very good motorcycle, and that he will be able to distinguish himself in a few racesWarning! This scenario assumes he does not get injured again, which is far from guaranteed.
What do you think of my analysis of the Jorge Martin case? Tell me in the comments!
As a reminder, this article only reflects the thoughts of its author, and not of the entire editorial team.
Cover photo: Michelin Motorsport