Rarely has the hierarchy of manufacturers in MotoGP been so shaken up. Ducati dominates the debates, but the battle for second place in the standings promises to be more competitive than ever. What if KTM came to shake up the established order? Together, let's analyze why this is possible in several points.
I) Intelligent recruitment
KTM has two teams on the board (counting Tech3 GasGas), a significant advantage. Rarely, in one winter, three new drivers have arrived, and in our opinion, each of the new recruits is a relevant choice. To start with Jack Miller. Coming from the Ducati factory, Miller will undoubtedly be able to use his experience to help the team progress. If it is unreasonable to expect numerous victories and proactivity worthy of the best from him, the Mattighofen firm will hope that he “do the job” on the track, as he was able to do in 2022.
His hybrid role as No. 2 driver capable of occasionally winning makes him interesting. As such, and although we believe that in absolute terms, Oliveira remains a better driver,
KTM wins because the Australian's profile is more suited to the project.
Raw performance will mainly depend on Brad Binder. After having had a magnificent campaign, we feel he is ready to take a step forward and compete on the podium more regularly. We are talking here about a driver who can compete with Fabio Quartararo et Pecco Bagnaia, minus the speed. If he takes advantage of the sprint races, and if he manages to regularly climb into the box, even without too many victories, there is no doubt that he will be in the title race.
To pass this milestone and finally claim the title, Binder will have to push harder in the race, even if it means risking falling a little more often. Quartararo, and even more so Bagnaia, are much faster. Photo: Michelin Motorsport
The return of Pol Espargaro is not uninteresting. Indeed, the Spaniard will be keen to erase the failure
Honda Repsol, and will be very motivated to achieve some exploits. Watch out for him on Saturday, his speed over a lap is well established, and his explosiveness can propel him to the top during sprint races. As for
Augusto Fernandez, this is the great unknown. However, and against general opinion, we believe that he is the best rookie in MotoGP since the 2021 vintage (bastianini et Martín). His very mature profile in the approach and his exceptional flashes (Silverstone 2022) can make him dangerous.
II) KTM is on the rise
Red Bull KTM Factory Racing, in its long form, recorded unprecedented growth in 2022.
We know the determination and competitive spirit that reigns within the Austrian firm for decades. . With only two high-performance machines (in fact), it managed to grab fourth place in the manufacturers' standings, but more interestingly, second in the teams' standings, blowing away Aprilia's place in the final moments. In 2022, the official team scored 92 more points than in 2021.
III) A particular context
It is above all the absence of competition, or rather the state of the grid which pushes us to such a conclusion. Indeed, apart from Ducati, what team can boast of being so solid and promising? Suzuki is no more, and it's hard to imagine Honda at the same level, except of course Marc Marquez which will be fast, no matter what. Yamaha can recover, but once again, the absence of a satellite team as well as the case Franco Morbidelli is in no way reassuring. The light can only come from Fabio. As we've seen this year, it's not foolproof.
Intelligent recruitment: “Pollycio” still wants, at 31, to prove that he still has his place in the top 10 of the best drivers in the world. Photo: Michelin Motorsport
There remains Aprilia, which, like KTM, has made enormous progress.
The catastrophic end of the season and the removal of concessions tell us that it will be difficult to repeat the feat of 2022. In addition, the Noale firm cannot count on a driver of the caliber of Brad Binder.
Maverick Vinales is capable of achieving some feats, but it is difficult to imagine him regaining his 2017 form, which itself was not characterized by regularity. Aleix Espargaró was still in the game, but at already 33 years old in an ever-younger environment, can he continue at this pace while carrying out the project? Hard to say. In any case, Aleix did not have the speed necessary to play up front last campaign. As of this writing, KTM has the advantage.
What do you think of the Austrian brand's ambitions? Are you optimistic for 2023? Tell us in the comments!
Yes, we think KTM can get closer to the top. Photo: Michelin Motorsport
Cover photo: Michelin Motorsport
