Let's Talk MotoGP: Is there really no hope for Pecco Bagnaia?

It's been several weeks now since I last wrote anything about Pecco Bagnaia., yet twice world champion and twice runner-up over the last four years. In just a few months, the Italian has become anecdotal, without solution, invisible. We all know his distress, which he expresses weekend after weekend. It's so serious that I'm starting to ask myself serious questions: can he even get out of this bad situation?

 

A very rare phenomenon

 

Misano was a terrible sight to behold. Although he was quite fast on Friday, he was nowhere to be seen once the lights went out, on one of his favorite circuits. It was there that he had beaten Enea Bastianini during the 2022 season, and in what style, please. His Grand Prix ended headlong, behind a tire wall, hearing his fellow competitors continue to ride after his fall from the soft underbelly of the pack. Mentally, we see that he is affected, his body language is explicit, as is that of the two women accompanying him – his wife and his sister. It's as if no one believes it anymore, and this is even more evident when we observe Davide Tardozzi's reactions when Bagnaia underperforms.

 

 

The Italian has won eleven Sunday races in 2024, which, when not accompanied by a world title, is a record. Have we ever seen, in history, a star of the championship? MotoGP to suffer such disappointment in less than a year? Of course, we must exclude the injured from the lot. It is true thatAlex Criville had a lot of trouble with the NSR500 in 2000, but the only difference is that, in the results, he at least managed to maintain himself!

Few people talk about it, but it's getting worse and worse for Bagnaia. Usually, with a bike that doesn't convince them, riders start off very badly from the start and gradually climb back up the slope. Sometimes they find their way back, like Enea Bastianini at the moment with KTM, and sometimes they stagnate, unable to go any faster, like Fabio Quartararo last season. It is very rare for a driver to regress as the year progresses, and yet that is currently the case with Bagnaia.

I even wonder where it could end! Can you imagine a world where the factory Ducati rider would finish races in the bottom five? He was fighting with Miller and his ilk before crashing at Misano. That's absolutely crazy for a rider of his rank. At the beginning of the year, he was complaining, sure, but at least he managed to hold off Bezzecchi, Di Giannantonio, and others. Today, "Diggia" is a much better driver than him on the Desmosedici GP25.

 

Unfavorable context for Bagnaia

 

If we look at the situation from a more positive perspective, then it might not be so bad in the long run. I'll cut you off right now, I'm not crazy, let me explain.Let's say that Bagnaia throws the end of the season in the trash, or, at the limit, that he just finds a boost of energy in the last rounds, so that it allows him to finish fourth in the championship.

 

 

In a normal year, he'd already be telling himself it's over, and focusing on a comeback next season. After all, he'd be fourth in a MotoGP championship, which is a big result, and It should be noted that other legends have experienced real downturns during their careers.. Let's take my idol, Jorge Lorenzo, for example: in my opinion, his 2014 season was extremely disappointing, and if we compare his era, when only four bikes could win, to Bagnaia's, much more open season, the gap is not that big, in reality. Yet, in the end, he finished third in the championship, and responded perfectly the following season! Ten years later, we don't even remember it. The important thing is to believe in yourself enough to bounce back even higher, and I simply dare to hope that this 2025 exercise will not make Pecco Bagnaia lose all confidence, because he remains a very great talent.

Second example, if Lorenzo's doesn't speak to you; Marco BezzecchiHe, too, had an exceptional 2023, arguably one of the best ever for an outsider. Yet, in 2024, he fell far, far short of expectations. And here it is, in 2025, shining brightly, while many did not give much for his skin against Jorge Martin and on a machine that was a priori less efficient.

The elements I have just brought forward represent legitimate grounds for hope. If Bagnaia manages to come back stronger in 2026, this season will be nothing but a bad memory., which will not even raise the eyebrows of statisticians in forty years. But still, fate is against it, because two other parameters play against it.

First, he couldn't have chosen a worse time to underperform. In 2027, new bikes will be introduced, on which the brands competing in MotoGP are fully focused. The Desmosedici GP26 should therefore be very similar to the 2025 model, which itself was largely inspired by the 2024 model. A continuity that probably won't please Bagnaia, because a bad end to 2025 will surely be a bad start to 2026... and who knows if he will be able to keep his place afterwards.

 

 

This is my second point: the competition is fierce. The problem with sharing the pit box with Marc Marquez is that he manages to mask all the flaws in a bike. Personally, and given Fabio Di Giannantonio's inconsistent performances, I don't think the GP25 is as dominant as Marquez would have you believe. Thus, Why would Ducati alter its philosophy completely a year before a regulation change in Bagnaia's favor when the team's other rider can win every race he enters? I'm not saying that Ducati favors Marquez – I don't believe that for a second – but simply that from a pure point of view of logic, they should do it in 2026!

 

Conclusion

 

The 2026 season will be pivotal for Bagnaia. Either he bounces back, somewhat miraculously with a bike similar to this one, and 2025 will be nothing more than a bad patch, not even that bad from a statistical point of view, or he sinks, loses his place to an Alex Marquez, a "Diggia" or someone else. And in that case, I don't think he can get back up. Believe me, writing this saddens me, because I had high hopes for Bagnaia all these yearsIf I'm wrong and he's not that strong, then I'll say so, but my intuition tells me it's still too early to say. The soul of champions is not to be underestimated.

What do you think of Pecco Bagnaia's recent Grand Prix performances? Can he recover? Tell me in the comments!

 

 

Cover photo: Michelin Motorsport