Let's talk MotoGP: Pecco Bagnaia is under threat, he must react immediately!

It's prediction time! Every season, this column tries to guess what will happen in the coming months, focusing on all the drivers in the category. Then, at the end of each article, the author will make a prediction, but will also welcome yours in the comments! Today, it's time to talk about Pecco Bagnaia.

Yesterday, we revisited the case of Jorge Martin; click here to find the article in question.

 

Bagnaia, the driver who is playing for the highest stakes

 

Pecco Bagnaia is not in an easy situation, far from it. For me, he's the one with the most at stake in 2026, for reasons I'll explain in a few lines. First of all, he needs to try and regain the confidence of a champion. The Italian has won three Grand Prix titles, including two consecutive titles in the premier class.Yet, nobody talks about him as the great rider he is. A single bad season was enough to put him on the brink of disaster, so much so that his place at Ducati is highly compromised at the time of writing.

 

 

Obviously, he cannot remain psychologically impervious to such pressure. Bagnaia, like everyone else, is human. Seeing fate conspire against us at the end of the 2025 fiscal year must have been particularly difficult to bear.The challenge, before even discussing performance and podium finishes, will first and foremost be mental. Bagnaia absolutely must rediscover the calm, killer instinct that drove him from 2022 to 2024. I think it's possible, because I remain convinced that it was primarily a question of equipment, and that can be improved.

 

Not all negative news for Bagnaia

 

His 2025 season was one of the worst ever for a factory rider, let alone a star.Frankly, it was heartbreaking to see him struggle behind Somkiat Chantra in Indonesia before crashing rather miserably. But intellectual honesty should compel all spectators to acknowledge that he also shone at times last year, when conditions were right. It's impossible not to mention the Japanese Grand Prix, where, on a bike whose true nature we'll never know, he took pole position, the Sprint victory, and the win in the... Grand PrixThis single example, in my opinion, completely refutes the theory of mental weakness in relation to the success of his teammate Marc Marquez. When he was in control of his Desmosedici, he was dangerous, even towards the end – particularly at Sepang.

Despite a disastrous campaign in many respects, he still managed two Sunday wins, six other podium finishes, and three pole positions. To believe that Bagnaia is finished would be a grave mistake.He showed, from 2022 to 2024, that he was among the best drivers of all time, and I don't believe that talent evaporates in just one year.

 

A major problem

 

After reading these few lines, you might think I envision Pecco Bagnaia back on top in 2026. Not really. You see, given that I believe his problem stemmed from the bike itself, the Desmosedici would need to be drastically improved or better suited to him. And that's where doubt creeps in.In my opinion, the GP26 will be very similar to the GP25, much to Bagnaia's dismay, for three reasons. First, Ducati's development is limited by its concessions status. It's impossible to imagine them making a significant leap forward, like Honda or Aprilia. Second, I don't see the Borgo Panigale firm going all out just a year before a major regulatory change, which will require enormous resources. Third, Why would Ducati completely alter its philosophy when Marc Marquez dominated the 2025 season?

 

 

The Reds have the main weapon, MarquezAnd unfortunately for Bagnaia, Marc has the legitimacy to embody "the direction to follow," as he did at Honda, given his dominance. It's been this way for a very long time in motorsport. Why would Ducati sacrifice the chances of the nine-time world champion in order to favor a rider who has been far less successful? No, in my opinion, everything will be done to ensure Marc can perform, just as was the case at Honda, without implying that Bagnaia will be disadvantaged; things aren't always black and white. This would make sense a year before a complete overhaul of the category. If Bagnaia manages to keep up and adapt thanks to a few adjustments, that's good, and if not, too bad!

 

Time for the prediction!

 

My interpretation of the Bagnaia case is quite complex. Unlike many people, including former pilots, I remain convinced of his great talentBut I don't see him returning to the title race in 2026. Later, perhaps on a different bike, yes, undoubtedly, he has the ability, but not in this context. Fortunately for him, he should sign with a very good team soon, even before the start of the season, according to what he said in Sepang. This way, he can approach the 2026 season with a little less pressure, and, yes, he'll have the opportunity to perform on occasion.

But in terms of the standings, I don't see him competing with Marc Marquez, firstly, or even with other top riders. His feeling was pretty good at Sepang, but we know you shouldn't rely too much on those tests. Bagnaia, for no apparent reason, could fall back. So, anticipating difficult periods already due to the link between GP25 and GP26, I see it finishing between 4th and 6th place in the general classification. Believe me, I wish I were wrong, because he is a pilot I hold dear in my heart.

What are your plans for Pecco Bagnaia in 2026? Tell me in the comments!

As a reminder, this article only reflects the thoughts of its author, and not of the entire editorial team.

 

 

Cover photo: Michelin Motorsport