Let's talk MotoGP: Pecco Bagnaia is no longer favorite?

Statistics suck! Pecco Bagnaia may have won the Qatar Grand Prix MotoGP, in addition to leading the world championship, and yet, he is not the favorite according to history. Indeed, two interesting figures show that destiny might not be on his side. Beware of superstition!

 

Never seen in ten years

 

Pecco Bagnaia achieved a feat under the spotlights from Lusail. On Sunday, he led every lap of the race to get his first victory of the season. He's the first to do this since Jorge Lorenzo in 2013, when he flew out of the lead and never looked back. He won by six seconds over Valentino Rossi back at Yamaha. Remember, that same year, Marc Marquez beat Lorenzo in the quest for the world title, thanks to a season full of daring even if undoubtedly less impressive than that of “Por Fuera”. This is strong, because Jorge started from pole position, where Bagnaia only started from fifth row on the grid.

 

 

This is rare, because historically, it is very difficult to widen the gap at Lusail. For what ? Due to the long straight line which allows aspiration, on the one hand, but also, the few stopped turns - braking creates gaps, as well as the number of falls which is always very low here. During the Grand Prix, only Jack Miller got through and again, the wide clearances allowed him to get up and start again. The numerous battles for the lead between Andrea Dovizioso and Marc Marquez only underline the greatness of Bagnaia's effort.

Lorenzo, in 2013, experienced health problems – notably his collarbone following a bad fall in Assen. Let's hope for Pecco's sake that the prophecy does not come true.

 

An unlucky first round

 

 

As we saw in the previous paragraph, Pecco Bagnaia led all the laps, and therefore, the first. Believe it or not, but statistically, these days, those who do the same simply cannot win the Grail!

As incredible as it may seem, Marc Marquez, in 2018, was the last to have finished the first loop in front and then went on to win the world title! It's still crazy that this doesn't happen more often, given that those who take the holeshot are often among the best.

Even worse ! He is the first since Andrea Dovizioso in 2019 to lead the first round of the season, then finish on the highest step of the podium. In 2020, in Jerez, during the year of the pandemic, Maverick Vinales was the fastest at the start, once is not customary, but Fabio Quartararo took the opportunity to glean his first success at the highest level. At Losail, in 2021, it was Pecco Bagnaia who was in the lead after the first round but it was Vinales who won the jackpot. In 2022, remember, it was Pol Espargaro who took the credit at the end of a loop, but Enea Bastianini finally imposed her law. Then, in 2023, in Portugal this time, it was Miguel Oliveira who made the strongest impression from the start, but was speared by Marc Marquez a little later. Ultimately, Bagnaia won the race and completed the first sprint/Grand Prix double.

 

 

What does that mean ?

 

Nothing, or almost nothing. Indeed, statistics are a powerful tool, without a doubt, but should be used sparingly. In the United States, a real “stat culture” has taken hold which does not really fit with the unpredictability and magic of MotoGP. ; it is far from being a mathematical discipline. On the other hand, it's always fun to study these figures, because although not significant, they are often indicative of trends. In this case, Bagnaia's domination in Qatar shows that he is particularly strong, probably more than we would like to believe if no driver has led all the laps on this track since 2013. On the other hand, this will complicate his championship? Probably not. But it can still make your passionate guests laugh at a dinner party with friends.

What do you think ? Tell us in the comments!

 

 

Cover photo: Michelin Motorsport