We were expecting a reaction from Pecco Bagnaia at Mugello, on one of his favorite circuits. And, honestly, he delivered. Even though he still has some visible weaknesses, the official Ducati rider is on a pretty interesting run, having finished at least one of the two races in the top 3 for the last five Grands Prix. How far can he go?
Bagnaia and his audacious strategy
The Italian did the job. At Mugello, where he won three consecutive GPs from 2022 to 2024, Bagnaia finished third in Sunday's race, but not without a struggle in the final corner.In fact, his strategy was simple: get off to the fastest possible start, wearing out his tires, and then pray he wouldn't be overtaken too much during the management phase. At one point, it seemed he might win, given his eight-tenths of a second lead over Bezzecchi in second. But the Aprilia rider also seemed confident, as evidenced by his charge through the field and his overtaking maneuver.
It was a bold idea for two reasons. First, it's extremely uncomfortable to have to defend a position without tires; any rider will tell you that. A crash can happen very quickly, and, in a sense, He was lucky that Ai Ogura didn't have another turn to attack himBagnaia's defense was intelligent on that final turn, but I must say the Japanese driver didn't make the most effective choice either. I'd like to take this opportunity to mention Ogura, but he needs to be very careful with his overtaking maneuvers. On the last two Grand PrizesHe repeatedly resorted to aggressive maneuvers and even made contact with his opponents on several occasions. He shouldn't be placed in the same category as Raul Fernandez.
The second reason is even more obvious: for Bagnaia's strategy to work, he needed a good start, and a good first lap, let's say. Yet, since 2025, we know he struggles to overtake as clearly as before. that it no longer has the same braking advantageWell, starting from sixth on the grid, he managed to quickly pull away from the pack. That's a good sign for the future, for sure.
I would say that he managed his effort well, and he shows that, even if he is still struggling with the Desmosedici GP26 – this is clear in qualifying, an area in which he excelled two years ago –, There is progress.
Can he get back on the overall podium?
Now, what about his chances for this year? What could he be aiming for? It's difficult to say, because we saw in 2025 how unpredictable he can be. Bagnaia is always a rider who crashes a lot. And then there's the possible return of his teammate Marc Marquez, who we know is very comfortable on some of the upcoming circuits, starting with Balaton Park.
However, when you look at the rankings, Pecco is strangely well placed considering the season he is having. Basically, he's doing well, but I already talked about that in a previous article.After Mugello, he is seventh overall, but only ten points behind fifth place, currently held by Ai Ogura. Personally, I believe that with less competitive equipment, He can absolutely overtake Raul Fernandez and Ai Ogura, at the very leastI find both Trackhouse drivers very nervous. Lately, they've shown some good things, but they've also made mistakes. coarse while huge points were promised to them.
Up front is Pedro Acosta. Marc Marquez himself admitted the superiority of the Ducati over the KTM (Sources claim the Austrians lowered the RC16's rev limit to avoid further breakdowns), but even so, I think Acosta is having a magnificent season in 2026, and a poorly paid one at that – Barcelona alone is costing him an arm and a leg. I think it will be very difficult for Bagnaia to catch him, not to mention the risk of injury, of course. The same goes for Di Giannantonio. inherently less good, but this season much more motivated and in harmony with the GP26.
Bagnaia must be wary of Marc Marquez, but also of his brother Alex when he returns – He was better than Pecco before his downfall —not to mention Fermin Aldeguer, who is progressing as his leg gets better.
In conclusion, I don't see Bagnaia making a significant comeback, as he still lacks that connection with his machine that would allow him to more frequently reach the front row, and thus have a real chance of winning a race. which has not yet happened.
What do you imagine Pecco Bagnaia will do for the rest of the season? Tell me in the comments!
Cover photo: Michelin Motorsport