Jack Miller may be behind in these final rounds, but he could well leave Ducati as a winner. Indeed, the Australian has every chance on the Valencia track, especially since he holds the most important cards in his hand. Analysis of a (very) particular situation. It may seem surprising, but we (at least the author of this article) see Jack Miller on the top step of the podium next Sunday.
If the Ducati Desmosedici GP22 has no faults, it is particularly comfortable on the circuit Ricardo Tormo. This is the first point of this study. Historically, the Borgo Panigale firm has always figured well there. From the first year of involvement in Grand Prix, i.e. 2003, Loris Capirossi was on the podium.
Troy Bayliss won in style in 2006, as Stoner in 2008, Dovizioso in 2018 et Bagnaia in 2021.
So, we should see, like everywhere from now on, Ducatis performing well and clearly in the game. Nothing new under the sun. On the other hand, it is a turnstile which is perfectly suited to Jack Miller. He won in Moto3 during the 2014 season, and has three podiums in the last four meetings in the Valencian Community.
Regardless of his form, a victory would be a surprise against a Quartararo with his back to the wall and a Bagnaia on fire. Photo: Michelin Motorsport
Then, his current form is not bad, but has been marred by several racing incidents. Since his majestic victory in Motegi, he has another podium in Thailand. Broke by Alex Marquez at Phillip Island early in the race, he did not have the opportunity to reveal his full potential during his national Grand Prix. In Malaysia, he showed great racing sense to make his way through the peloton, starting 14th after a failed Q1. Despite an average start, he managed to move up to sixth position.
The numbers tell us more about his fitness. During the first part of the season, it turns 11,4 points per race when he crosses the finish line, i.e. fifth position on average. From Silverstone
and the summer recovery, he strings together good performances and picks up 16,8 points per race when he does not fall, equivalent to third place. What can we learn from this dynamic? Her
momentum is still good, and it is indeed a few unique events which tarnish the end of the season. No fundamental errors or big loss of speed to report; it's more than just a detail.
Finally, and although good weather is forecast, at the time these lines are written, “Jackass”
could take advantage of a whim of Mother Nature, who excels in the wet. Valencia has accustomed us to sudden changes in weather, and it is not uncommon to see crazy races with unpredictable scenarios. It's a safe bet that Jack wouldn't say no to such a situation.
So there's no reason why Miller shouldn't go for the win, or at least the podium. The Australian has pace, decent speed (best lap in the race during the Grand Prix in 2020), is comfortable on this track, and will be keen, for his last with Ducati, to delight the fans and show to his direction that they (perhaps) have
not made the right choice.
Photo: Michelin Motorsport
Thus, he is freed from all pressure, although the title of Bagnaia still in play. However, Miller should not receive orders, for several reasons. First of all, there is very little chance that Pecco and Miller will compete for victory. Indeed, if “Go Free” leaves in front and gives us a demonstration of which he has the secret, Jack will probably not be able to follow the rhythm regularly, and therefore no chance of a collision. The opposite is also true. Miller has a good chance of winning alone if he is on his day.
Moreover, his three Grand Prix successes were acquired this way.
Of course, we should not tempt the devil on the championship leader, but Jack already knows that: This is more common sense than team instructions. Then, if he plays the podium with
bagnaia behind, Ducati would be very wrong to ask for a change of position. This would tarnish the brand image when it is simply not necessary, Fabio Quartararo in front or not. As a reminder, Bagnaia must finish in 14th position to be titled regardless of the result of
“El Diablo”.
For all the reasons we have just detailed, a totally liberated Miller is certainly among the favorites. Do you think he is able to impose himself and play spoilsport? Tell us in the comments !
After five years in the Ducati fold, Jack Miller will be keen to do well. Photo: Michelin Motorsport
Cover photo: Michelin Motorsport
