Let's talk MotoGP: What can Aprilia aim for this season?

Will the Aprilia team be able to shake up the established hierarchy like in 2022? With the 2023 season fast approaching, we present ten topics to watch out for throughout the year. This may concern drivers, teams or other themes, with, each time, a relatively clear-cut opinion. Ihere we get wet. Of course, you are invited to say what you think in the comments. Let's start this series with an analysis of the chances of Noale's firm.

Before giving a sort of “prognosis”, let us study the question in detail. To understand, nothing better than looking at last season. Aprilia, now without Gresini Racing team in operation, was able to achieve the first victory in its history in Argentina thanks to the efforts of Aleix Espargaró. The addition of Maverick Vinales The end of 2021 was not uninteresting and left one dreaming.

The podiums have multiplied, as have the good performances (notably at Assen, their benchmark race). Halfway through the season, Aprilia certainly had one of the best machines in the field. Very stable and versatile, it suited the Spanish pair perfectly, who was solid second in the team rankings.

Now that that's said, let's remember dynamics, which in sport is often more important than absolute form. And the least we can say is that she is not in favor of the Italian team. First of all, the track, the only indicator that never lies. The firm collapsed at the end of 2022, and in what way. Between human errors (Motegi), lack of speed (Sepang) and mechanical failure (Valencia, the only double retirement of the season at the worst time), the blow has settled, and, it must be admitted, these last failed rounds take a big place in our judgment.

Then, only 36 points scored in five races with two drivers is meager. As if that wasn't enough, Aprilia was overtaken by Red Bull KTM Factory Racing in the teams ranking, and finished just a stone's throw from Yamaha in the manufacturers' standings. Please note: there are still reasons for hope, particularly in terms of development. Aprilia has not been idle this winter, and returns with a very advanced machine fromaerodynamic point of view. But yet, we find it hard to imagine a better season than 2022, here's why. 

Let's focus on the drivers first. On paper, Maverick Vinales can get good places or even a few podiums, always with the irregularity that characterizes him. But we have big doubts about his ceiling. We don't question his intrinsic talent (one of the best of his generation), but we can hardly imagine him doing better than with Yamaha for example. If “Top Gun” did not succeed under the awning of Iwata, why could he do it in a team which, certainly, showed good things during the winter tests, but which ran out of steam to this extent at the end of the year last ? It's fast, sure. but is he the one who can take a project to the next level, especially when the brand is going through a bad patch? We do not think so.

Then, the eternal Aleix Espargaró. The one who surprised everyone in 2022 will turn 34, and seems spared by the passage of time. For him too, and although we love this driver with an immense legacy, we are relatively pessimistic.

First, his 2022 campaign was a bit miraculous and contrary to what the numbers show, he was never really able to play for the world crown. Its reactive position and conservative “strategy” (failing to be able to go faster) excluded him from the title race in an era where velocity prevails. He was only proactive on two occasions, Rio Hondo hot springs and Assen, his best performance of the year. Ultimately, he didn't take enough risks when his style, for 10 years, was to get the most out of inferior machines until he fell. This change in philosophy allowed him to be mathematically closer to the lead, but contextually further away from a title. History teaches us: to be world champion, you have to win, often if possible, and performance must take precedence over consistency.

The second reason follows from the first, because the shooting windows are meager in MotoGP. We believe that 2022 was as good an opportunity as ever to aim for a world crown, as it is certain that RS-GP had the potential for it at some point. Additionally, the average points per race required to be champion was historically low (Bagnaia titled with only 13,25 points per race). There was room for a winning outsider like in 2020. We are not going to reveal the next analyses, but we think that Ducati and more particularly the pair of officials will not let so many races escape them in 2023.

So, of course, there is a good chance that Aleix Espargaro finishes in the top 10, as often, especially since the bike seems to perform well. He is one of the best drivers of the decade, so this would not be exceptional and would, a fortiori, be a regression compared to 2022 if it does not do better than 4th. Moreover, this aspect of probable retreat is perceptible in one of his statements. When Aleix says of the Aprilia 2023 package at Sepang that he “does not yet know if it is enough to fight at the forefront of the world championship” when he was de facto at the forefront of the world championship less than six months ago says a lot. Afterward, he made up for it by saying he couldn't see any brand other than Ducati doing better, but every word makes sense. At the time of writing, Aleix is ​​suffering from inflammation in his right arm and is expected to undergo surgery shortly. These men are warriors but an injury like this at the start of the season can hinder the creation of a positive dynamic.

Let's end on a significant point that may have escaped you: the multiple declarations of the sports director Massimo rivola. Between the imbroglio around the new ECU and the presence of the famous eight Ducatis on the grid, the Italian no longer knows where to turn. His strong point of view is respectable, but his position is ultimately more defeatist than reasoned: “I ask for controls and regulations on the number of motorcycles authorized per manufacturer”, or : “If I were at Ducati, I would have all tests banned. Because they have so many motorcycles on the track during the races”. We all understand what he means, but that's probably not the right way to phrase it. We have the impression that he is already admitting defeat even though the season has not even started.

You will have understood, we are not the most optimistic regarding the Aprilia Racing case. They also need to be wary of the NWA threat if development ever becomes uncontrolled, which is not that uncommon at the highest level. Warning: sport is unpredictable, and we wholeheartedly hope that the Italian team will make us lie! These analyzes are subjective, although they attempt to be based on facts.

What do you think about the question? Will the firm be able to repeat or, even more incredible, do better? Tell us in the comments!

Cover photo: Michelin Motorsport