Let's talk MotoGP: Raúl Fernández no longer has a choice

The 2024 season starts today! Until the first Grand Prix of the Season, Let's talk MotoGP will try to detail as best as possible the expectations surrounding all pilots; Raúl Fernández’s turn. This will be accompanied by a short prediction, and of course, you are invited to give yours in comments. Yesterday, we continued this series with Franco Morbidelli, in an article that you can find by clicking here.

 

Between the cracks

 

Since his arrival in MotoGP for the 2022 season, Raul Fernandez escapes eviction. Heralded as a genius after an exceptional 2021 season in Moto2, he is struggling to find his place in the most prestigious of categories. First, at Tech3, in 2022, then, at Aprilia RNF in 2023. Last year, in fact, he was the author of a tasteless year, marked by a single stroke of brilliance during the last Grand Prix. So, yes, there has been improvement, that's undeniable, and the overseas tour helped. He even showed great resilience in the Thai heat, while his teammate Miguel Oliveira was experiencing all the difficulties in the world.

But overall, if we take a step back, this driver has not yet lived up to the expectations placed on him. Only 23 years old, he is still in the prime of his life; that's why this season promises to be crucial for him. He will benefit from a new machine, the Aprilia RSGP-23, which proved its worth last season, and will play in a new team, Trackhouse Racing. It's fresh, it's new. We know that he is capable of doing well, but between saying it and doing it, there is a world of difference.

 

 

And what's more, it's going badly. Injured at the very start of testing at Sepang, he was unable to take stock of his package with the developments. Damage. Raul Fernandez has never done a full season in MotoGP without going through the infirmary; a parameter to take into account. That said, he seemed to be back in form a few days ago during testing at Losail.

Basically, he absolutely must progress in the 2024 season, because his future in MotoGP is far from assured. RNF, by selecting him ahead of Remy Gardner at the end of 2021, had focused on his explosiveness, his youth, but also his potential. But potential is only the expression of a possibility, it is a mirage, an illusory image until we are in front of it to attest to its veracity.. On paper, it is very strong, but paper never wears leather.

 

The prognosis

 

Let's move on to the most interesting part of this analysis, the part where you have to get wet. And my observation, perhaps harsh, is clear. I think Raul Fernandez will suffer. Already, I see Miguel Oliveira better than him, despite his bad run at the end of 2023. Raul Fernandez remains limited, and simply has not proven enough at the highest level to make me say anything else.

 

 

This is the first point. The second is more serious. On the current grid, he is arguably the most injury-prone with Alex Rins. And his fall after ten minutes of testing at Sepang doesn't mean anything to me. Obviously, if he shows himself to be more proactive, faster, even more explosive – which he will have to do if he wishes to capitalize on his intrinsic qualities, this will be accompanied by greater risk-taking, and perhaps more falls. For more fragile pilots like him, combativeness can work against him. I don't wish it on him, of course, but he might want too much, especially to make up for a possible delay in his machine, because the three other Aprilia drivers will benefit from the RSGP-24. On the other hand, if he doesn't try and stays at the bottom of the rankings, he's going to suffer.

 

 

The situation is therefore not the easiest for Raul Fernandez. Personally, and I hope I'm wrong, but I see a bit of a difficult year for him, between injuries and up-and-down results.. With, on the positive side, a better, more convincing result than in 2023, why not a top 3 in a Sprint or a podium in a Grand Prix. He has the capacity to be more dazzling, but this potential still needs to be translated. Concerning the ranking, unfortunately, this would mean that he would still occupy the last positions.

I repeat ; I sincerely hope I'm wrong and wish him the best. This part reserved for predictions serves us all to try to predict the future. Some will be just, others, off the mark, but that's what's fun and instructive when it's argued.

What do you think of this analysis, and where do you see it ending up in 2024? Tell me in the comments!

 

 

Cover photo: Michelin Motorsport