Let's Talk MotoGP: Everyone makes mistakes, and we need to talk about them

It's summer, so why not take advantage of it to try a new format. This column has been running for six years now, which is a relatively long time in the internet age, and it's clear that you like it. This concentrated, reasoned subjectivity is very often punctuated by predictions, because that amuses me a lot. Today, I wanted to look back at the worst (and best) predictions shared in Let's Talk MotoGP, because, after all, to err is human. Here we go!

A champion who has not confirmed

Let's start right away with what I consider my biggest failure. Indeed, since 2019, I've been very attached to Augusto Fernandez, who was capable of real feats in Moto2. I told you about him back then, six years ago. After his somewhat more difficult period in the intermediate category, he had a sumptuous 2022 season, rewarded with the world title. All these years, I had defended his driving style, his sense of overtaking and his racing science.In 2022, he achieved some of the best performances of the year in all categories, notably at Assen and Silverstone.

Obviously, when it was announced at KTM Tech3 in MotoGP, I was sure of myself, buoyed by the fact that he had proved me right four years after my first predictions about him. And during that rookie year, in 2023, I tried to reassure myself, saying that he had done everything right, because he was consistent. I believed it after Le Mans, where he finished fourth. But ultimately, his performance wasn't that successful. In 2024, he was completely eclipsed by Pedro Acosta, and thus left KTM.

Perhaps he would have had a different trajectory if he had started at Ducati? Photo: Michelin Motorsport

Well, he still managed to bounce back at Yamaha as a test rider. Again, I didn't want to give up: I told you to keep an eye on him if he came in as a replacement, because I knew he was going to get some riding time between the probable injuries of Oliveira and Rins. And despite this status, he disappoints, especially with this uncontrolled overtaking on Nakagami in Brno. Now I have little hope.

I have to admit that I was wrong about him, and that makes me bitter, because I thought I had detected real potential. Even if he is still very young, I don't see him bouncing back in MotoGP, Sadly.

But where is the “Bagnaia era”?

My second biggest mistake, in my opinion (I encourage you to remind me of others in the comments), concerns Pecco Bagnaia. It has nothing to do with his talent, because I stand by what I said about him when I compared him to Casey Stoner, for example. On the other hand, I was wrong about his legacy. In the middle of the 2024 season, I titled an article: "After the Marquez era comes the Bagnaia era", as if the eight-time world champion had given way to a new force, capable of winning more or less every race.

The reality is that the Marquez era is still ongoing, and has been since 2013. He would have been capable of winning every title since his rookie year, including 2021 against Fabio, if he hadn't been injured, of course. The Marquez era will only end when he retires from the category, and 2025 proves how wrong I was, even though I still predicted Marc Marquez to win the championship. I expected a close fight, for Bagnaia to rise up and indirectly prove me right by honoring his legend. Instead, we have a Pecco who has been demanding his GP24 for six months and is 48 points behind Marquez who is not even Marc in the ranking.

I have a few other average predictions in mind, which concern, in particular, the 2024 World Championship, where I saw Bagnaia winning, but also the destinies of drivers, as for Tony Arbolino et Celestino Vietti, which I saw coming through. But hey, let's stop beating ourselves up, and we'll go back to a few moments where I was right.

At least one good one!

I started writing articles in 2019, and My third paper was only about Miguel Oliveira, a rather discreet rookie at the time. Those who follow the column know that he is one of my favorite riders. You should know that, since 2015 and his incredible battle against Danny Kent for the Moto3 title, the Portuguese was in my good books. I had detected in him an extraordinary capacity to shine a few times per season, and that is exactly what happened throughout his career. As I predicted, he did indeed become a regular outsider in MotoGP for a while, and even if he never became world champion, I think he had a fantastic career, marked by successes that I will not soon forget.

In the end, I'm glad I "bet" on him, because he paid me back in kind on many occasions, thus offering me unforgettable memories.

It's a shame he's been plagued by injuries. Photo: Michelin Motorsport

Honda's mistake

At the time, for Oliveira, many agreed with me even though he was not a driver that the majority focused on. On the other hand, for Joan Mir, I got torn off in the comments. When I learned of his signing with Honda Repsol for 2023, I immediately pointed out this casting error. To me, it seemed obvious that his profile was not suitable, especially given his less than average 2022 season with Suzuki. Everyone jumped on me at the time of publication, claiming that he could raise Honda. In addition, his contract was particularly juicy, from memory, which legitimized his choice, in a way.

Race results: Joan Mir has the worst record in modern history as a factory rider since 2023, and Honda still won't let go of the matter. Even today, I think that this mistake is costing the winged company dearly, which has not finished paying the price for this risky decision.

Many of my predictions are still in progress, and I have high hopes for the one about Japanese manufacturers, which may only come true in a few years. There is also the Quartararo case, as illustrated in the cover photo. In 2024, I publicly stated that staying with Yamaha was a career mistake, at least on a sporting level. For now, It's half confirmed given Bezzecchi's results on the Aprilia, but I can't draw any conclusions right now.

I'm curious to hear your thoughts on this piece. Feel free to point out some of my mistakes in the comments, and also to confess the times you were wrong! After all, if we could guess everything in advance, this sport would be very boring!