Let's talk MotoGP: Bastianini is a killer, here's why

To start the new year off right, let's focus on the main outsider of this 2022 season. Enea Bastianini has shaken up the hierarchy. Four times, he won under the noses of the best drivers, but a very specific statistic illustrates his side “killer” in the soul.

During a previous article, we already discussed the performance of pilots. Obviously, in motor sports there are no advanced statistics allowing the real efficiency of each entrant to be calculated. Based on a model used in football, we could deal with the “good chances of winning” that a driver has transformed (a pole, a good overtake at a given moment in the race) to deduce his performance. But to establish relevant data, it would be necessary, with the help of a complex algorithm, to analyze all MotoGP races since 2016 at least – either the introduction of the single ECU – and draw up winning probabilities for each scenario. As you will have understood, this would take far too much time and resources.

Intuitively, we have a small idea of ​​each person's performance. Indeed, we can easily conclude that Johann zarco is not very effective, he who has eight poles in the premier category but no victory. Its transformation rate is therefore zero, or almost zero., because the results are not binary, unlike football (victory/defeat).

 

 

But one number in particular can help us better understand the effectiveness of each. If we take into account the laps led in relation to the victories, we can easily get an idea of ​​the forces present. Exactly, Enea Bastianini beats the entire board soundly.

In 2022, Bagnaia comfortably led this ranking. He counts 189 laps in the lead, and most of the time, alone (Jerez, Mugello, Assen, Silverstone, Spielberg, and in a lesser extent, Misano et Sepang). This figure is gigantic, since Quarterly, second, led “only” 76. Remember that the Italian won seven times, compared to three for the Frenchman. Miller, for a victory, led 55 rounds, which is already a nice total. Jorge Martin, with 41 towers, follows him, but has never climbed to the highest step of the podium. Come Kidneys, author of two successes, with 36 laps completed in first position. Then Miguel Oliveira, with 29 laps led for two victories.

This should ring a bell. Bastianini, for four successes, only led 22 laps over the entire season. It's just huge, and it says a lot about his profile and especially his potential. In a sense, this demonstrates its performance. He is, by far, the most effective on the grid. The pole position argument still holds, and the Italian only had one in Austria. He was unable to take advantage of it due to a mechanical problem, but Saturday remains one of his weak points if we look at the whole season.

Bastianini takes four victories from a pole and 22 laps in the lead. If we look in detail at his successes, it is even more impressive; He has only led in just six Grands Prix. Five tours in Qatar, which were enough to protect themselves from Brad Binder. Same figure in the USA, and again, the competitors could do nothing about it. At Le Mans, the fall of Pecco Bagnaia forced by his undermining work gave him seven little laps in the lead, not one more. And during his masterstroke in Aragón, he led only one lap, but the most important of all: the last. Crazy.

 

This statistic is frightening, because “Bestia” is indeed capable of leading the peloton and setting a pace alone in the lead, in addition to being endowed with an extraordinary sense of overtaking. If he finds himself in front a little more often in 2023, we could well have a new world champion at the end of the year because as you now know, Bastianini does not waste opportunities. Note that the two other races he led without winning were the San Marino Grand Prix (defeat for 0'034'') and Malaysia (defeat for 0'270''). Absolutely incredible.

Let us take advantage of this article to pay tribute to other good students. Aleix Espargaró only led five laps all season, but that was enough for him to win in Argentina. Fabio is also a good customer, since he only commanded three rounds – his three victories, although he has a totally different style, more in control than Bastianini. Similar scenario for Miguel Oliveira, who triumphed every time he had the chance. Exemplary realism. On the other side of the spectrum we find Jack Miller, a victory for 55 towers curly at the head. The prize for worst efficiency goes to Jorge Martín, who did not win despite his 41 units, helped by five pole.

Regardless, this statistic will be taken into account next season. What do you think ? Is Enea Bastianini your favorite to win? Tell us in the comments!